Skip to main content

AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.90 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or... Read more

$139.90+0.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 17 Rental & Leasing Services
Stop $130.80Target $141.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$162.22+16.0%9 analysts
$141.13our TP
$139.90price
$162.22mean
$175

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.90 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$22.5B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn45.2%
ROE22.1%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.18bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $134.11Resistance $150.68

Price Targets

$131
$141
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AER stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $139.90 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $130.80. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AER stock price target?

Take-profit target: $141.13 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $130.80. Stop-loss: $130.80.

What are the risks of investing in AER?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is AER overvalued or undervalued?

AerCap Holdings N.V. trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AER?

14 analysts cover AER with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $162.

What does AerCap Holdings N.V. do?AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United...

AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Related stocks: HRI (Herc Holdings Inc.) · FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · MGRC (McGrath RentCorp) · GATX (GATX Corporation) · SUNB (Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.)