Agree Realty runs a high-quality property portfolio with margins of 29%, free cash flow conversion of 203% of net income, and a Rule of 40 score of 78, but with only 2.2% headroom to the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.61, the setup favors patience over adding capital at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Thin Risk Reward At Target→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Concern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers;... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Agree Realty Corporation
About Agree Realty Corporation
Agree Realty's 2,674-property net lease retail portfolio, spanning all 50 states with 55.5 million square feet of GLA, was 99.7% leased at December 31, 2025, carrying a weighted average lease term of 7.8 years. Investment-grade-rated tenants or their parent entities generated 66.8% of annualized base rent. In fiscal 2025, the company deployed $1.57 billion across 305 property acquisitions and 21 completed developments, adding assets leased at a weighted average term of 11.5 years.
Agree Realty's NNN leases pass substantially all property operating expenses — real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance — to tenants, limiting landlord capital requirements. The three external growth platforms — direct acquisitions ($1.44 billion in fiscal 2025), the Developer Funding Platform partnering with developers during construction, and an in-house development program ($131.2 million in 2025 completions) — target e-commerce-resistant and recession-resistant tenant sectors. The tenant mix spans 29 sectors; grocery stores (10.3%), home improvement (9.0%), and convenience stores (7.7%) represent the largest sector concentrations of annualized base rent. Total debt at December 31, 2025 was $3.32 billion, comprising $2.61 billion of unsecured notes at a weighted average fixed rate of 4.05% and a 27.4% debt-to-enterprise-value ratio, with $42.9 million of secured mortgage debt at 3.67% fixed.
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The $2.61 billion in unsecured notes carries a weighted average maturity of 5.9 years, with $320.5 million in revolving credit and commercial paper borrowings outstanding at year-end. The October 2024 ATM equity program carries 4.44 million forward shares outstanding with settlement required by dates between June 2026 and May 2027, representing a near-term dilution event alongside refinancing needs. No single tenant accounts for more than 10% of annualized base rent, capping individual credit exposure; however, single-tenant vacancy — if a tenant defaults — requires the company to bear all operating costs of that property until re-leased, a risk magnified by the build-to-suit nature of many properties.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From Agree Realty Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Agree Realty Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS ADC Therapeutics (NYSE:ADCT) Shares Up 11.8% - Still a Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Is ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) Stock Outpacing Its Medical Peers This Year? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Oak Thistle LLC Has $2.21 Million Stock Position in Agree Realty Corporation $ADC - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS ADC Therapeutics stock plunges on trial safety concerns - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS ADC Maintains by Barclays -- Price Target Raised to $86.00 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWTenantgrocery stores sector10%10-K Item 1A: '10.3%, 9.0% and 7.7% of our annualized base rents were derived from tenants operating in the grocery stores, home improvement, and convenience store sectors, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $76.37 (-1.9%), stop $75.37 (−3.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $76.37 (-1.9% upside). Target $76.37 (-1.9%), stop $75.37 (−3.2%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $75.37.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 42.1 (forward 39.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
24 analysts cover ADC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $85.
What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA,...
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers; 66.8% of annualized base rent derives from investment-grade-rated tenants.