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Essential Properties Realty Tru (EPRT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. At $31.17, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed REIT that acquires and manages single-tenant net-leased properties for middle-market service and experience-based businesses across 48 states. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 2,300 properties with $555M annualized base... Read more

$31.17+7.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#1 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.43%
IncomeYield4.01%(5y avg 4.06%)Payout96.06%
Stop $30.19Target $33.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$37.08+18.9%20 analysts
$33.37our TP
$31.17price
$37.08mean
$40

Sell if holding. At $31.17, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Essential Properties Realty Tru

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.1%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.3
P/E (Fwd)22.4
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA17.2
Profit Mgn43.5%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth22.8%
Beta0.93
Dividend4.01%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Texas (12.7%), Florida (7.4%), Georgia (6.5%), Ohio (5.4%) and Wisconsin (4.6%)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    CFO Robert W. Salisbury's employment agreement terms disclosed via 8-K/A. He was previously appointed effective January 1, 2026; agreement provides $475K base salary, 125% target bonus, and term through May 7, 2030.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.11Resistance $33.08

Price Targets

$30
$33
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EPRT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $31.17, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $30.19. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EPRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.37 (+7.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.19. Stop-loss: $30.19.

What are the risks of investing in EPRT?

Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is EPRT overvalued or undervalued?

Essential Properties Realty Tru trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 22.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EPRT?

26 analysts cover EPRT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Essential Properties Realty Tru do?Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed REIT that acquires and manages single-tenant net-leased...

Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed REIT that acquires and manages single-tenant net-leased properties for middle-market service and experience-based businesses across 48 states. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 2,300 properties with $555M annualized base rent and 99.7% occupancy, with no single tenant exceeding 3.4% of ABR.

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