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Essential Properties Realty Tru (EPRT) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Negative momentum.

Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed net lease REIT with 2,300 single-tenant properties across 48 states leased to middle-market service- and experience-based businesses (car washes, restaurants, medical, childcare, automotive). As of December 31, 2025,... Read more

$31.37+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 23 REIT - Retail
Stop $30.00Target $33.64(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$37.38+19.1%20 analysts
$33.64our TP
$31.37price
$37.38mean
$40

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.3%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.5
P/E (Fwd)22.9
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA17.3
Profit Mgn43.5%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth22.8%
Beta1.02
Dividend3.98%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicTexas13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our business includes substantial holdings in the following states as of December 31, 2025 (based on annualized base rent): Texas (12.7%), Florida (7.4%), Georgia (6.5%), Ohio (5.4%) and Wisconsin (4.6%)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.57Resistance $33.60

Price Targets

$30
$34
A.Upside+7.2%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EPRT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $33.64 (+7.2%), stop $30.00 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EPRT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.64 (+7.3% upside). Target $33.64 (+7.2%), stop $30.00 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $30.00.

What are the risks of investing in EPRT?

Thin upside margin: 7.3%; Negative momentum.

Is EPRT overvalued or undervalued?

Essential Properties Realty Tru trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about EPRT?

26 analysts cover EPRT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Essential Properties Realty Tru do?Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed net lease REIT with 2,300 single-tenant properties across 48...

Essential Properties Realty Trust is an internally managed net lease REIT with 2,300 single-tenant properties across 48 states leased to middle-market service- and experience-based businesses (car washes, restaurants, medical, childcare, automotive). As of December 31, 2025, annualized base rent was $555M across 659 tenant concepts; no single tenant exceeds 3.4% of ABR.

Related stocks: BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · PECO (Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.) · ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) · GTY (Getty Realty Corporation)