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CBLCBL & Associates Properties, InSell5.6·$51.19
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

CBL trades at roughly 5.5x operating cash flow — among the most attractively valued names in its retail REIT peer group — with a 51% return on equity and 30% operating margins, but 5.4x debt-to-equity leverage, weak revenue growth, and only 2.2% headroom to the analyst price target leave limited near-term return potential.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Reit Cash Flow Valuation→Stable
  • High Leverage Balance Sheet Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Reit Quality Metrics→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CBL & Associates Properties, In (CBL) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. At $51.19, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

CBL & Associates Properties is a retail real estate investment trust that owns and operates malls, outlet centers, lifestyle centers, open-air centers, office buildings and hotels concentrated principally in the southeastern and midwestern United States. Its tenant and market... Read more

$51.19+4.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.98%
IncomeYield4.78%Payout28.46%
Stop $49.51Target $53.55(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$63.00+23.1%2 analysts
$53.55our TP
$51.19price
$63.00mean
$66

Sell if holding. At $51.19, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)-134.1
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn37.0%
ROE61.9%
Rev Growth4.0%
Beta1.41
Dividend4.78%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV117%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicsoutheastern and midwestern United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our properties are located principally in the southeastern and midwestern United States, so our business is subject generally to economic conditions in these regions and, in particular, to adverse economic developments affecting the operating results of our properties in our five largest markets.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 30)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.25%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $51.04Resistance $55.39

Price Targets

$50
$54
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $51.19, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $49.51. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the CBL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.55 (+4.6% upside). Prior stop was $49.51. Stop-loss: $49.51.

What are the risks of investing in CBL?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5.

Is CBL overvalued or undervalued?

CBL & Associates Properties, In trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward -134.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CBL?

6 analysts cover CBL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $63.

What does CBL & Associates Properties, In do?CBL & Associates Properties is a retail real estate investment trust that owns and operates malls, outlet centers,...

CBL & Associates Properties is a retail real estate investment trust that owns and operates malls, outlet centers, lifestyle centers, open-air centers, office buildings and hotels concentrated principally in the southeastern and midwestern United States. Its tenant and market base is broadly diversified: its top five markets, led by Chattanooga, Tennessee at 6.7% of total revenues, together with its top 25 tenants at 34.15% of total revenues, show no single tenant exceeding 2.67% of revenue. The company conducts substantially all of its business through its Operating Partnership and must satis

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