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Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.61 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: single tenant properties.

Agree Realty is a fully integrated net-lease REIT with 2,674 properties across all 50 states (~55.5M sq ft), 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year average remaining lease term; 66.8% of annualized base rent comes from investment-grade tenants. Revenue flows from triple-net leases... Read more

$75.61+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.87%
IncomeYield4.23%(5y avg 4.21%)Payout168.00%
Stop $73.37Target $76.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$85.11+12.6%18 analysts
$76.60our TP
$75.61price
$85.11mean
$92

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.61 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: single tenant properties. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Agree Realty Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: single tenant properties
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.0
P/E (Fwd)37.9
Mkt Cap$9.1B
EV/EBITDA20.0
Profit Mgn29.3%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta0.50
Dividend4.23%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV32%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantsingle tenant properties
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is significantly dependent on single tenant properties'
  • LOWGeographicTexas6.9%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the state of Texas (where 169 properties out of 2,674 properties are located, or 6.9% of our annualized base rent was derived as of December 31, 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.30Resistance $79.72

Price Targets

$73
$77
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! Momentum score 4.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $75.61 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Tenant: single tenant properties. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $73.37. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.60 (+1.3% upside). Prior stop was $73.37. Stop-loss: $73.37.

What are the risks of investing in ADC?

Concentration risk — Tenant: single tenant properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ADC overvalued or undervalued?

Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 41.0 (forward 37.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADC?

24 analysts cover ADC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $85.

What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty is a fully integrated net-lease REIT with 2,674 properties across all 50 states (~55.5M sq ft), 99.7%...

Agree Realty is a fully integrated net-lease REIT with 2,674 properties across all 50 states (~55.5M sq ft), 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year average remaining lease term; 66.8% of annualized base rent comes from investment-grade tenants. Revenue flows from triple-net leases requiring tenants to pay operating costs, generating stable cash flows; no single tenant exceeds 10% of annualized base rent.

Related stocks: EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Tru) · BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) · BFS (Saul Centers, Inc.) · SKT (Tanger Inc.) · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust)