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Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Agree Realty is a net-lease REIT owning 2,674 retail properties across all 50 states, 99.7% leased with a ~7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net leases to national retailers; ~66.8% of annualized base rent is from investment-grade... Read more

$76.69+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 23 REIT - Retail
Stop $73.92Target $76.90(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$85.44+11.4%18 analysts
$76.90our TP
$76.69price
$85.44mean
$92

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.3
P/E (Fwd)38.2
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA20.1
Profit Mgn29.3%
ROE3.7%
Rev Growth18.7%
Beta0.53
Dividend4.20%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.19bullish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicTexas6.9%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the state of Texas (where 169 properties out of 2,674 properties are located, or 6.9% of our annualized base rent was derived as of December 31, 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $75.12Resistance $79.74

Price Targets

$74
$77
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $76.90 (+0.3%), stop $73.92 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.90 (+0.3% upside). Target $76.90 (+0.3%), stop $73.92 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $73.92.

What are the risks of investing in ADC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is ADC overvalued or undervalued?

Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 41.3 (forward 38.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADC?

24 analysts cover ADC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $85.

What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty is a net-lease REIT owning 2,674 retail properties across all 50 states, 99.7% leased with a ~7.8-year...

Agree Realty is a net-lease REIT owning 2,674 retail properties across all 50 states, 99.7% leased with a ~7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net leases to national retailers; ~66.8% of annualized base rent is from investment-grade tenants. No single tenant exceeded 10% of annualized base rent.

Related stocks: BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) · EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Tru) · FRT (Federal Realty Investment Trust) · SPG (Simon Property Group, Inc.) · PECO (Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.)