Agree Realty is a high-quality retail REIT (Piotroski 9/9, 198% FCF/NI, 30% margins) paying a 4.8% dividend with steady, in-line to slightly beating earnings, but upside to the analyst target is only 4.3% and the stock is below its 200-day average. It is a hold-for-income position.
Thesis pillars
- Elite Financial Health Cash Conversion→Stable
- Steady Earnings No Misses↓Deteriorating
- Reliable Dividend Income↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Retail
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers;... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Agree Realty Corporation
About Agree Realty Corporation
Agree Realty's 2,674-property net lease retail portfolio, spanning all 50 states with 55.5 million square feet of GLA, was 99.7% leased at December 31, 2025, carrying a weighted average lease term of 7.8 years. Investment-grade-rated tenants or their parent entities generated 66.8% of annualized base rent. In fiscal 2025, the company deployed $1.57 billion across 305 property acquisitions and 21 completed developments, adding assets leased at a weighted average term of 11.5 years.
Agree Realty's NNN leases pass substantially all property operating expenses — real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance — to tenants, limiting landlord capital requirements. The three external growth platforms — direct acquisitions ($1.44 billion in fiscal 2025), the Developer Funding Platform partnering with developers during construction, and an in-house development program ($131.2 million in 2025 completions) — target e-commerce-resistant and recession-resistant tenant sectors. The tenant mix spans 29 sectors; grocery stores (10.3%), home improvement (9.0%), and convenience stores (7.7%) represent the largest sector concentrations of annualized base rent. Total debt at December 31, 2025 was $3.32 billion, comprising $2.61 billion of unsecured notes at a weighted average fixed rate of 4.05% and a 27.4% debt-to-enterprise-value ratio, with $42.9 million of secured mortgage debt at 3.67% fixed.
Show full overview
The $2.61 billion in unsecured notes carries a weighted average maturity of 5.9 years, with $320.5 million in revolving credit and commercial paper borrowings outstanding at year-end. The October 2024 ATM equity program carries 4.44 million forward shares outstanding with settlement required by dates between June 2026 and May 2027, representing a near-term dilution event alongside refinancing needs. No single tenant accounts for more than 10% of annualized base rent, capping individual credit exposure; however, single-tenant vacancy — if a tenant defaults — requires the company to bear all operating costs of that property until re-leased, a risk magnified by the build-to-suit nature of many properties.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Retail
From Agree Realty Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 21, 2026Recent Developments — Agree Realty Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Agree Realty Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $79.47, Implies 18% Upside - TradingView — TradingView Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Agree Realty: 7.3% Acquisitions, $75 Equity, And A $67 Stock - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Agree Realty Stock: 7.3% Acquisitions, $75 Equity, And A $67 Stock (NYSE:ADC) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Agree Realty (ADC) Reports Q3 Earnings Beat, Updates 2026 FFO Gu - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS AGREE REALTY ($ADC) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:39:49Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWTenantgrocery stores sector10%10-K Item 1A: '10.3%, 9.0% and 7.7% of our annualized base rents were derived from tenants operating in the grocery stores, home improvement, and convenience store sectors, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $68.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $69.98 (+1.6%), stop $65.82 (−4.6%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $69.98 (+1.6% upside). Analyst target $69.98 (+1.6%), stop $65.82 (−4.6%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $65.82.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Below 200-day MA.
Agree Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 35.5 (forward 35.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
25 analysts rate ADC, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 18 analysts publish price targets averaging $78.
What does Agree Realty Corporation do?Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA,...
Agree Realty owns 2,674 net-leased retail properties across all 50 states, totaling 55.5 million square feet of GLA, approximately 99.7% leased with a 7.8-year weighted average lease term as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from long-term NNN leases with national retailers; 66.8% of annualized base rent derives from investment-grade-rated tenants.