Value
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1 |
| p ocf | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 15.0x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
ADC · Why this verdict
Why Agree Realty (ADC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Agree Realty is a high-quality retail REIT (Piotroski 9/9, 198% FCF/NI, 30% margins) paying a 4.8% dividend with steady, in-line to slightly beating earnings, but upside to the analyst target is only 4.3% and the stock is below its 200-day average. It is a hold-for-income position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Agree scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 with free cash flow at 198% of net income, 30% margins and a Rule of 40 score of 76. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 8/9 and FCF/NI stays above 150%. | →Stable |
| CounterROE scores only 1.3 out of 10, so strong cash flow is not producing meaningful returns on equity. | ||
Agree has no earnings misses in the last 4 quarters, with 2 beats (including $0.48 versus $0.47 on 2026-10-20) and 2 in-line results, for an average surprise of 1.3%. Earnings | The February 2027 report again lands at or above the consensus estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are tiny (under 5%) and estimates have been flat at $0.47 for a year, so there is little earnings growth. | ||
The stock pays a 4.8% dividend, with dividend safety scoring 4.8 out of 10 and modest insider buying of $4.1M (0.050% of market cap) in the period. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained at about 4.8% of price over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA dividend safety score under 5 suggests payout coverage is not generous, and rising rates would hurt REIT valuations. | ||
The price of $67.07 is 4.3% below the $69.98 analyst target, against 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.87. Targets | The price rises toward $69.98 as momentum recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterWith upside smaller than downside, there is no cushion if rates rise, and the sector carries a -1.2 modifier. | ||
The price trades below its 200-day average with falling on-balance volume after a death cross, although MACD is improving and momentum scores 4.7 out of 10. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims its 200-day average and on-balance volume stops falling. | →Stable |
| CounterA flat 200-day slope and distribution volume suggest the recovery lacks buyer support. | ||
Agree scores a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 with free cash flow at 198% of net income, 30% margins and a Rule of 40 score of 76.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 8/9 and FCF/NI stays above 150%.
CounterROE scores only 1.3 out of 10, so strong cash flow is not producing meaningful returns on equity.
Agree has no earnings misses in the last 4 quarters, with 2 beats (including $0.48 versus $0.47 on 2026-10-20) and 2 in-line results, for an average surprise of 1.3%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The February 2027 report again lands at or above the consensus estimate.
CounterBeats are tiny (under 5%) and estimates have been flat at $0.47 for a year, so there is little earnings growth.
The stock pays a 4.8% dividend, with dividend safety scoring 4.8 out of 10 and modest insider buying of $4.1M (0.050% of market cap) in the period.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained at about 4.8% of price over the next 12 months.
CounterA dividend safety score under 5 suggests payout coverage is not generous, and rising rates would hurt REIT valuations.
The price of $67.07 is 4.3% below the $69.98 analyst target, against 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.87.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The price rises toward $69.98 as momentum recovers.
CounterWith upside smaller than downside, there is no cushion if rates rise, and the sector carries a -1.2 modifier.
The price trades below its 200-day average with falling on-balance volume after a death cross, although MACD is improving and momentum scores 4.7 out of 10.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims its 200-day average and on-balance volume stops falling.
CounterA flat 200-day slope and distribution volume suggest the recovery lacks buyer support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 198% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 76 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $4,142,870 (0.048% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $55
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:97d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.5>=7.5+momentum=6.1>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.05
Upside
+0.4%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Value at 4.5, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Financial Health Cash Conversion
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from the current 9/9.
- P2Steady Earnings No Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Reliable Dividend Income
Trip ifThe dividend is cut by more than 5% or its yield falls below 4%.
- P4Thin Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $64.13 or below, from the current $67.07.
- P5Weak Trend After Death Cross
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5 out of 10 from the current 4.7.