With revenue declining approximately 25%, four consecutive earnings misses averaging a 25% shortfall below expectations, and business quality at minimum threshold levels, the risk profile substantially outweighs any potential recovery case.
Thesis pillars
- Persistent Earnings Misses→Stable
- Revenue In Sharp Decline→Stable
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.73: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
ProFrac Holding Corp. is a vertically integrated oilfield services company providing hydraulic fracturing, frac sand production, equipment manufacturing and specialty chemistry/data services (through its Flotek subsidiary) to E&P companies developing unconventional oil and gas... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.73: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About ProFrac Holding Corp.
About ProFrac Holding Corp.
ProFrac Holding Corp. operated 22 active hydraulic fracturing fleets and roughly 21.5 million tons of annual frac sand capacity across eight mines in the Permian, Haynesville and Eagle Ford basins as of December 31, 2025, spanning four segments - Stimulation Services, Proppant Production, Manufacturing and Flotek. The company's top ten customers, primarily E&P operators in U.S. unconventional basins, accounted for 45% of consolidated revenue in 2025, up from 37% in 2024.
ProFrac generates revenue primarily from hydraulic fracturing services billed to E&P customers, supplemented by proppant sales, in-house manufacturing of fleet components, and Flotek's specialty chemistry and data-analytics products; its Livewire Power unit adds onsite natural-gas power generation for oilfield and non-oilfield customers. The company is vertically integrated, using its own frac sand mines to supply its stimulation fleets while also selling sand to third parties, and its Manufacturing segment builds and refurbishes fleets in-house, which management says helps mitigate the supply-chain constraints that have affected competitors. ProFrac has relied on financing tied to its controlling Wilks family stockholders and affiliated entities, including a 2025 issuance of $60 million in senior secured notes purchased partly by Wilks Brothers, LLC and Beal Bank USA, alongside sale-leaseback transactions with Flotek and Wilks-affiliated entities and amendments easing near-term amortization on its Alpine Term Loan Credit Agreement.
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ProFrac's proppant business is geographically concentrated in three basins - the Haynesville, Permian and Eagle Ford - where all eight of its frac sand mines are located, meaning a regional slowdown in any one of these areas would affect both third-party sand sales and the captive supply feeding its own stimulation fleets. The company also flags supplier concentration on the equipment side: its electric-fleet buildout depends on a limited number of suppliers for major components, and a significant portion of its frac sand mining operations, including at its Kermit, Lamesa and San Antonio mines, is performed by a single contractor, Wilks Earthworks, an affiliate of the company's controlling Wilks family stockholders.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
From ProFrac Holding Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — ProFrac Holding Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS ProFrac Refinances Asset-Based Lending Facility With Eclipse Business Capital, Increasing Facility Size To $300M And Ext — benzinga Jul 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Piper Sandler Maintains Neutral on ProFrac Holding, Raises Price Target to $6 — benzinga May 18, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ProFrac Holding Q1 Sales $449.600M Miss $450.135M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on ProFrac Holding, Raises Price Target to $6 — benzinga Apr 15, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T15:22:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers45%10-K Item 1A: 'our top ten customers represented 45%, 37% and 41% of our consolidated revenues, respectively.'
- MEDIUMSupplierelectric fleet equipment suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'our manufacturing business relies on a limited number of suppliers for major equipment to build our new electric-powered hydraulic fracturing fleets utilizing Clean Fleet® technology.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyWilks Earthworks10-K Item 1A: 'Wilks Earthworks, LLC ("Earthworks"), an affiliate of the Wilks Parties, provides us those services at our Kermit, Lamesa and San Antonio Sand Mines pursuant to a Master Services Agreement'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee granted 2026 performance-based restricted stock unit awards to the Executive Chairman, CEO, CFO and Chief Commercial Officer under the existing incentive plan. Routine compensatory grant, not a personnel change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -25.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.73: Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.53. Score 3.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.52 (+58.6% upside). Prior stop was $4.53. Stop-loss: $4.53.
Target reached (-10.6% upside); Quality below floor (1.1 < 4.0).
ProFrac Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ACDC with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $5.
What does ProFrac Holding Corp. do?ProFrac Holding Corp. is a vertically integrated oilfield services company providing hydraulic fracturing, frac sand...
ProFrac Holding Corp. is a vertically integrated oilfield services company providing hydraulic fracturing, frac sand production, equipment manufacturing and specialty chemistry/data services (through its Flotek subsidiary) to E&P companies developing unconventional oil and gas resources across the United States. The company operated 22 active fracturing fleets and roughly 21.5 million tons of annual frac sand capacity as of December 31, 2025, with its top ten customers accounting for 45% of 2025 consolidated revenue.