Value
8.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ACDC · Why this verdict
Why ProFrac Holding (ACDC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ProFrac is a speculative oilfield-services name with weak quality (Piotroski 2/9, no moat), four straight earnings misses and a price already above the analyst target. The one bullish signal is heavy insider buying of about $9.8M, which does not offset the negative reward-to-risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insiders made 10 open-market purchases worth $9,753,790 (1.097% of market cap) in 90 days with no sells, a strong conviction signal. Insider | Insider buying continues and the stock recovers toward its 200-day average over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders at a deeply drawn-down company (-41% from the 52-week high) often buy early, and buying has not stopped repeated earnings misses. | ||
Quality scores 1.1 out of 10 with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, no competitive moat and ROE and margins near zero. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 4/9 and operating margin turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company is cyclical and could recover sharply with oilfield activity, but there is no moat to protect margins through the trough. | ||
ProFrac missed EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -16.9%, and losses of $0.38 per share in the latest quarter. Earnings | EPS surprise turns positive and the quarterly loss narrows below $0.30 per share. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates have been trimmed each quarter (from -$0.43 to -$0.30), so the company may finally stop missing on a lowered bar. | ||
Quarterly revenue recovered from $403.1M in September 2025 to $498.1M in June 2026, with $624.8M estimated next quarter. Revenue quarters | Revenue reaches the $624.8M estimate and stays above $500M. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue was $600.3M in March 2025 and fell to $403.1M within two quarters, so the cycle can reverse quickly. | ||
The price of $4.88 is 4.4% above the $4.66 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, leaving a negative reward-to-risk of -0.29. Targets | Analyst targets are raised above the current price, or the price falls back below the target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe target may simply lag a recovery that insiders are betting on, and momentum is positive with rising on-balance volume. | ||
Insiders made 10 open-market purchases worth $9,753,790 (1.097% of market cap) in 90 days with no sells, a strong conviction signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues and the stock recovers toward its 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterInsiders at a deeply drawn-down company (-41% from the 52-week high) often buy early, and buying has not stopped repeated earnings misses.
Quality scores 1.1 out of 10 with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, no competitive moat and ROE and margins near zero.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 4/9 and operating margin turns positive.
CounterThe company is cyclical and could recover sharply with oilfield activity, but there is no moat to protect margins through the trough.
ProFrac missed EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -16.9%, and losses of $0.38 per share in the latest quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive and the quarterly loss narrows below $0.30 per share.
CounterEstimates have been trimmed each quarter (from -$0.43 to -$0.30), so the company may finally stop missing on a lowered bar.
Quarterly revenue recovered from $403.1M in September 2025 to $498.1M in June 2026, with $624.8M estimated next quarter.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue reaches the $624.8M estimate and stays above $500M.
CounterRevenue was $600.3M in March 2025 and fell to $403.1M within two quarters, so the cycle can reverse quickly.
The price of $4.88 is 4.4% above the $4.66 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, leaving a negative reward-to-risk of -0.29.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price, or the price falls back below the target.
CounterThe target may simply lag a recovery that insiders are betting on, and momentum is positive with rising on-balance volume.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
- ▸Volume surge (4.0x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 102%
Insider
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $9,753,790 (1.349% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-5.0%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.81
Upside
+72.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -67% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 4.81.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Insider at 8.5, and Technical at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.1, Growth at 2.3, and Peer rank at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifInsider net buying drops to $0 over the next 90 days after $9.75M in the last 90 days.
- P2Weak Business Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score stays below 3/9 from the current 2/9 through the next two annual reports.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters beyond the 4 existing misses.
- P4Revenue Recovery Volatile
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $450M from $498.1M.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $4.54 or below, from the current $4.88.