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USACUSA Compression Partners, LPSell6.4·$25.79-2.24%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

USA Compression Partners combines top-decile business quality (quality score 8.1 out of 10, Rule of 40 at 59, return on equity at 85%) with strong revenue growth of 35% year-over-year, but very high leverage (debt-to-equity of 9.5) and two consecutive earnings misses dampen the near-term setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue GrowthStable
  • Leverage And Distribution RiskImproving
  • Exceptional Operating QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Earnings in 7 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5.

USA Compression Partners provides natural gas compression services to oil and gas producers, processors, and midstream companies across U.S. unconventional plays including the Permian, Marcellus, and Bakken under fixed-fee contracts. The partnership's fleet stood at 3.9 million... Read more

$25.79-0.2% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#5 of 37 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.68%
IncomeYield7.96%(5y avg 9.99%)Payout214.29%at-risk
Stop $24.26Target $26.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$29.60+14.8%5 analysts
$26.33our TP
$25.79price
$29.60mean
$33

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About USA Compression Partners, LP

About USA Compression Partners, LP

USA Compression Partners operates 3.9 million horsepower of compression fleet across unconventional plays including the Utica, Marcellus, Permian, Denver-Julesburg, Eagle Ford, and — following the $860 million J-W Power Acquisition completed January 12, 2026 — the Bakken, bringing total fleet to roughly 4.9 million horsepower. The partnership's 5,364 compression units as of December 31, 2025 serve approximately 260 customer companies under fixed-fee contracts, making USA Compression Partners one of the largest independent compression service providers in the U.S. by total fleet horsepower.

USA Compression Partners earns revenue exclusively from fixed monthly service fees charged to major integrated oil companies, public and private E&P companies, and midstream gatherers. Contracts typically carry initial terms of six months to five years, with approximately 19% of 2025 compression services revenue generated on month-to-month arrangements at year-end — contracts that customers may terminate with 30 days' written notice. The top 10 customers represented 46% of total revenues in 2025, up from 39% in 2023. Compression units are built to company specifications using primarily Caterpillar 3400, 3500, and 3600 engine classes and Ariel compressor frames; the partnership relies on a limited number of suppliers — including Caterpillar, Cummins, INNIO Waukesha, and Ariel — without long-term purchase contracts, and the 10-K notes lead times for Caterpillar engines have extended beyond two years for certain classes. The company carried $2.5 billion of total debt at December 31, 2025.

Show full overview

USA Compression Partners' fixed-fee contract structure requires customers to pay monthly service charges even during periods of limited or disrupted throughput, insulating near-term cash flows from volume variability. However, approximately 19% of 2025 revenues were generated on month-to-month contracts subject to 30-day termination notice. Energy Transfer owns 100% of the General Partner and 32% of limited partner units, and the 10-K notes that the General Partner's fiduciary duties to unitholders are limited under the Partnership Agreement, creating governance dynamics where Energy Transfer's interests could diverge from those of other unitholders.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

From USA Compression Partners, LP's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.9
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE84.8%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta0.18
Dividend7.96%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Dividend Safety
2.2
Surprise Avg
2.3
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 7 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Macd
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.99Resistance $26.87

Price Targets

$24
$26
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USAC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.79 — A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.26. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.33 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $24.26. Stop-loss: $24.26.

What are the risks of investing in USAC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is USAC overvalued or undervalued?

USA Compression Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 26.9 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about USAC?

13 analysts cover USAC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $30.

What does USA Compression Partners, LP do?USA Compression Partners provides natural gas compression services to oil and gas producers, processors, and midstream...

USA Compression Partners provides natural gas compression services to oil and gas producers, processors, and midstream companies across U.S. unconventional plays including the Permian, Marcellus, and Bakken under fixed-fee contracts. The partnership's fleet stood at 3.9 million horsepower at December 31, 2025, growing to roughly 4.9 million horsepower after the January 2026 J-W Power Acquisition; top 10 customers represented 46% of 2025 revenues.

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