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Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.91: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.48; Below-average business quality.

Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems,... Read more

$14.91+11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#13 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-14.54%
IncomeYield12.33%Payout266.22%at-risk
Stop $14.15Target $16.65(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$19.14+28.4%7 analysts
$16.65our TP
$14.91price
$19.14mean
$14
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.91: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.48; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=10.2x,ratio=0.51x. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Mach Natural Resources LP

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.51× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE5.7%
Rev Growth43.8%
Beta-0.44
Dividend12.33%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.48bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.5
52w Position
9.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.9
Roa
2.6
Current Ratio
3.3
Net Margin
4.0
Gross Margin
6.9
Moat
7.1
Piotroski F
8.9
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -392% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=10.2x,ratio=0.51xMomentum 8.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.90Resistance $15.02

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=10.2x,ratio=0.51x

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.91: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.48; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $14.15. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MNR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.65 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $14.15. Stop-loss: $14.15.

What are the risks of investing in MNR?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 10.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.51× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is MNR overvalued or undervalued?

Mach Natural Resources LP trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MNR?

13 analysts cover MNR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Mach Natural Resources LP do?Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and...

Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems, processing plants. and water infrastructure. It also operates proved developed producing (PDP) wells. The company has operations in Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas and the panhandle of Texas; the San Juan Basin region of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Permian Basin region of West Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

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