Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MNR stock price target?

Take-profit $16.65 (+21.0% upside). Prior stop was $13.14.

Q: Is MNR overvalued or undervalued?

Mach Natural Resources LP trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MNR?

13 analysts cover MNR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $19.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.76: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, natural gas and NGLs; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

$13.76+21.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#7 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P

Stop $13.14Target $16.65(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1

Analyst target$19.14+39.1%7 analysts

$16.65our TP

$13.76price

$19.14mean

$22

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.76: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, natural gas and NGLs; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Strong growth profile

Analyst upside: 21%

Risks

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, natural gas and NGLs

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7

P/E (Fwd)10.3

Mkt Cap$2.3B

EV/EBITDA5.5

Profit Mgn13.7%

ROE9.0%

Rev Growth36.8%

Beta-0.52

Dividend14.29%

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish

IV92%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCommodityoil, natural gas and NGLs
10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenues, operating results, cash available for distribution, liquidity and ability to grow depend primarily upon the prices we receive for the oil, natural gas and NGLs we sell.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.815%1.32

Quality5.415%0.81

Growth8.215%1.23

Momentum6.310%0.63

Sentiment7.010%0.70

Insider Activity4.610%0.46

Peer Rank4.210%0.42

Technical Setup4.75%0.24

Risk Profile6.45%0.32

Catalyst4.45%0.22

Overall (Σ contributions)6.34

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

80 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.11Resistance $14.29

Price Targets

$13

$17

A.Upside+21.0%

A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MNR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $13.76: Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, natural gas and NGLs; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $13.14. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MNR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.65 (+21.0% upside). Prior stop was $13.14. Stop-loss: $13.14.

What are the risks of investing in MNR?

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, natural gas and NGLs; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MNR overvalued or undervalued?

Mach Natural Resources LP trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MNR?

13 analysts cover MNR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Mach Natural Resources LP do?Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and...

Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems, processing plants. and water infrastructure. It also operates proved developed producing (PDP) wells. The company has operations in Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas and the panhandle of Texas; the San Juan Basin region of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Permian Basin region of West Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.