United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sell if holding. At $95.30, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M packages per day (5.2B in 2025) with $88.7B in total revenue. Revenue comes from U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions (forwarding,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $95.30, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — United Parcel Service, Inc.
Latest news
- Amazon's Next Gold Mine Is Worth $1.3 Trillion: Transport Stocks Begin Paying For It — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
- UPS Stock Tries To Stabilize After Sharp Drop As Amazon Expands Into Logistics — benzinga May 5, 2026 negative
- Amazon's Logistics Bombshell Just Crashed Dow Transports Into A Bear Market — benzinga May 4, 2026 negative
- UPS Stock Slides As Amazon Launches Supply Chain Platform — benzinga May 4, 2026 negative
- Palantir Earnings Loom; GameStop's eBay Ambitions; China's Defiance Of US Sanctions — benzinga May 4, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerAmazon.com, Inc.11%10-K Item 1: 'one customer, Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates, represented approximately 10.6% of our consolidated revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $95.30, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $91.56. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $101.60 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $91.56. Stop-loss: $91.56.
Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
United Parcel Service, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover UPS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $113.
What does United Parcel Service, Inc. do?UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M...
UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M packages per day (5.2B in 2025) with $88.7B in total revenue. Revenue comes from U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions (forwarding, contract logistics, healthcare cold chain generating >$11B in 2025).