United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.
UPS is a global package delivery and logistics provider operating across 200+ countries, delivering an average of 20.8 million packages per day and generating $88.7 billion in total revenue in 2025. Revenue from package delivery, distribution, contract logistics, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerAmazon.com, Inc.11%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Amazon.com, Inc. For 2025, this customer and its affiliates accounted for 10.6% of our consolidated revenues'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-06Item 5.02LOWBoard member Kevin Warsh stated he would resign if confirmed as Federal Reserve Chairman. Decision not due to any disagreement with Company. No immediate departure; resignation contingent on Senate confirmation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $102.67. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $106.35 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $102.67. Stop-loss: $102.67.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Weak growth.
United Parcel Service, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
35 analysts cover UPS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $113.
What does United Parcel Service, Inc. do?UPS is a global package delivery and logistics provider operating across 200+ countries, delivering an average of 20.8...
UPS is a global package delivery and logistics provider operating across 200+ countries, delivering an average of 20.8 million packages per day and generating $88.7 billion in total revenue in 2025. Revenue from package delivery, distribution, contract logistics, and transportation services.