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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. At $95.30, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M packages per day (5.2B in 2025) with $88.7B in total revenue. Revenue comes from U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions (forwarding,... Read more

$95.30+6.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#7 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield5.70%
IncomeYield6.87%(5y avg 4.27%)Payout106.15%at-risk
Stop $91.56Target $101.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$112.88+18.5%26 analysts
$101.60our TP
$95.30price
$112.88mean
$75
$135

Sell if holding. At $95.30, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — United Parcel Service, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$81.2B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn5.9%
ROE33.4%
Rev Growth-1.6%
Beta1.05
Dividend6.87%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV35%normal
Max Pain$60-37.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerAmazon.com, Inc.11%
    10-K Item 1: 'one customer, Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates, represented approximately 10.6% of our consolidated revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.1
Declining revenue: -2%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.8
Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $94.39Resistance $108.02

Price Targets

$92
$102
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $95.30, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $91.56. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the UPS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.60 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $91.56. Stop-loss: $91.56.

What are the risks of investing in UPS?

Thin upside margin: 6.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?

United Parcel Service, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UPS?

34 analysts cover UPS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $113.

What does United Parcel Service, Inc. do?UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M...

UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M packages per day (5.2B in 2025) with $88.7B in total revenue. Revenue comes from U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions (forwarding, contract logistics, healthcare cold chain generating >$11B in 2025).

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