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UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.Sell4.8·$107.90+0.19%
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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M packages per day (5.2B in 2025) with $88.7B in total revenue. Revenue comes from U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions (forwarding,... Read more

$107.90+1.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#9 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield5.05%
IncomeYield6.09%(5y avg 4.34%)Payout106.15%at-risk
Stop $102.62Target $109.00(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$112.88+4.6%26 analysts
$109.00our TP
$107.90price
$112.88mean
$75
$135

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — United Parcel Service, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-09T22:16:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$91.5B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn5.9%
ROE33.4%
Rev Growth-1.6%
Beta1.04
Dividend6.09%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$75-30.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerAmazon.com, Inc.11%
    10-K Item 1: 'one customer, Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates, represented approximately 10.6% of our consolidated revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -1.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.1
Declining revenue: -2%
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
81 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $93.86Resistance $111.22

Price Targets

$103
$109
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $107.90 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $102.62. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the UPS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $109.00 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $102.62. Stop-loss: $102.62.

What are the risks of investing in UPS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is UPS overvalued or undervalued?

United Parcel Service, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UPS?

33 analysts cover UPS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $113.

What does United Parcel Service, Inc. do?UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M...

UPS is a global package delivery and logistics company serving 200+ countries and territories, delivering 20.8M packages per day (5.2B in 2025) with $88.7B in total revenue. Revenue comes from U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions (forwarding, contract logistics, healthcare cold chain generating >$11B in 2025).

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