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FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $379.89: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and logistics services through two reportable segments: Federal Express (integrated air-ground express to 220+ countries, ~700 aircraft, 175K+ vehicles) and FedEx Freight (LTL). A multi-year DRIVE transformation including Network 2.0 is... Read more

$379.89+4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#5 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.00%
IncomeYield1.55%(5y avg 1.81%)Payout30.59%sustainable
Stop $355.09Target $395.95(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$400.96+5.5%26 analysts
$395.95our TP
$379.89price
$400.96mean
$230
$479

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $379.89: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.3Qual3.8Grw5.0Mom2.9Sent6.7Ins3.8Peer5.4Tech6.4Risk6.05.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — FedEx Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-4.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)16.8
Mkt Cap$89.5B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth8.3%
Beta1.30
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV41%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02HIGH
    CFO John W. Dietrich stepping down as EVP and CFO effective June 1, 2026; departing the Company July 31, 2026. No successor named in this filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved amendments to FY25-FY27 and FY26-FY28 long-term incentive plans. Routine compensatory arrangement changes; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.6
Net Margin
2.4
Operating Margin
2.8
Roa
3.4
Moat
4.8
Roe
5.3
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $354.14Resistance $404.03

Price Targets

$355
$396
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-23 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $379.89: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.45; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $355.09. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $395.95 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $355.09. Stop-loss: $355.09.

What are the risks of investing in FDX?

Target reached (-4.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is FDX overvalued or undervalued?

FedEx Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 16.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FDX?

33 analysts cover FDX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $401.

What does FedEx Corporation do?FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and logistics services through two reportable segments: Federal Express...

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce, and logistics services through two reportable segments: Federal Express (integrated air-ground express to 220+ countries, ~700 aircraft, 175K+ vehicles) and FedEx Freight (LTL). A multi-year DRIVE transformation including Network 2.0 is underway, and a spin-off of FedEx Freight is expected by June 2026.

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