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FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $391.49: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

FedEx provides global transportation, e-commerce, and business services through two segments: Federal Express (unified air-ground express) and FedEx Freight (LTL freight, planned spin-off by June 2026). Revenue comes from package and freight shipping fees tied directly to global... Read more

$391.49+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#2 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
Stop $371.79Target $391.68(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$401.89+2.7%27 analysts
$391.68our TP
$391.49price
$401.89mean
$230
$479

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $391.49: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.2Qual3.8Grw5.0Mom5.0Sent6.2Ins3.8Peer5.8Tech4.8Risk7.45.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$92.7B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE15.9%
Rev Growth8.3%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV40%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02HIGH
    John W. Dietrich will step down as EVP and CFO on June 1, 2026, and depart FedEx July 31, 2026. No successor named in filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved amendments to FY25-FY27 and FY26-FY28 long-term incentive plans on March 9, 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement change; no officer departures or appointments disclosed.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-29Item 2.05MEDIUM
    FedEx France announced January 23, 2026 domestic transformation program to modernize and simplify its operations in France. Restructuring/exit costs; no total estimated amount specified in visible filing body.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.5
Fcf Quality
1.6
Net Margin
2.4
Operating Margin
2.8
Roa
3.4
Moat
5.0
Roe
5.3
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 20% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $353.50Resistance $399.67

Price Targets

$372
$392
A.Upside+0.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-23 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $391.49: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $371.79. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FDX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $391.68 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $371.79. Stop-loss: $371.79.

What are the risks of investing in FDX?

Target reached (-7.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is FDX overvalued or undervalued?

FedEx Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FDX?

34 analysts cover FDX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $402.

What does FedEx Corporation do?FedEx provides global transportation, e-commerce, and business services through two segments: Federal Express (unified...

FedEx provides global transportation, e-commerce, and business services through two segments: Federal Express (unified air-ground express) and FedEx Freight (LTL freight, planned spin-off by June 2026). Revenue comes from package and freight shipping fees tied directly to global trade volumes and consumer/business spending.

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