Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.81
UPS · Why this verdict
Why United Parcel Service (UPS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
United Parcel Service trades near its analyst price target with strong earnings momentum (3 beats in 4 quarters, averaging 11.5% upside surprise), but elevated debt and a negative risk/reward ratio signal limited near-term appreciation potential.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8, UPS carries above-average financial leverage that reduces flexibility and adds a structural cost overhang to future earnings. Bear case | If earnings grow and debt is reduced, the leverage ratio should decline below 1.5 over the next 12 months, easing financial risk. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe Piotroski financial strength score of only 3 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet deterioration beyond just leverage, which may persist. | ||
UPS has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11.5%, suggesting the business generates profits above what analysts model. Earnings | Earnings per share results will continue to meet or exceed analyst estimates over the next 12 months, sustaining a positive beat rate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue has been declining at roughly 2% year-over-year, meaning earnings beats could reflect cost-cutting rather than organic demand growth, limiting durability. | ||
UPS sits above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal and rising on-balance volume, reflecting sustained buying interest despite slowing revenue. Momentum breakdown | The price should remain above the $102.57 stop-loss level and hold its technical uptrend over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume accumulation has not been confirmed by fundamental revenue growth, raising the risk that the technical trend reverses once macro conditions weaken. | ||
The current share price of $108.83 is essentially at the analyst consensus price target, leaving only 0.2% upside to take-profit — a signal that near-term capital appreciation is largely exhausted. Warnings | Analyst price targets should be revised upward by at least 10% over 12 months for a new entry to be justified. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterUPS's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 is not cheap by sector standards, meaning targets are unlikely to be raised unless revenue declines reverse. | ||
With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.8, UPS carries above-average financial leverage that reduces flexibility and adds a structural cost overhang to future earnings.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- If earnings grow and debt is reduced, the leverage ratio should decline below 1.5 over the next 12 months, easing financial risk.
CounterThe Piotroski financial strength score of only 3 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet deterioration beyond just leverage, which may persist.
UPS has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11.5%, suggesting the business generates profits above what analysts model.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share results will continue to meet or exceed analyst estimates over the next 12 months, sustaining a positive beat rate.
CounterRevenue has been declining at roughly 2% year-over-year, meaning earnings beats could reflect cost-cutting rather than organic demand growth, limiting durability.
UPS sits above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal and rising on-balance volume, reflecting sustained buying interest despite slowing revenue.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should remain above the $102.57 stop-loss level and hold its technical uptrend over the next 12 months.
CounterVolume accumulation has not been confirmed by fundamental revenue growth, raising the risk that the technical trend reverses once macro conditions weaken.
The current share price of $108.83 is essentially at the analyst consensus price target, leaving only 0.2% upside to take-profit — a signal that near-term capital appreciation is largely exhausted.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be revised upward by at least 10% over 12 months for a new entry to be justified.
CounterUPS's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 is not cheap by sector standards, meaning targets are unlikely to be raised unless revenue declines reverse.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.28
Upside
-9.8%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Value at 6.4, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Peer rank at 3.9, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.28 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Leverage Headwind
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.0 within the next 12 months.
- P3Price Momentum Strength
Trip ifPrice drops below $102.57 stop-loss level, more than 5% below the current $108.83.
- P4Analyst Target Ceiling
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target remains below $120 for more than 6 consecutive months.