Expeditors International has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 14% above consensus, underpinned by strong capital returns including a 37% return on equity, but the stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 24 times earnings with a PEG ratio near 3.75 and barely 1.2% upside to the near-term resistance target — the technical momentum is constructive but the risk/reward at current prices does not favor new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Sustained Earnings Outperformance↓Deteriorating
- Premium Valuation No Asymmetry→Stable
- Strong Capital Returns→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Expeditors International of Was (EXPD) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $196.43 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away).
Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight (36% of 2025 revenues), ocean freight (25%), and customs brokerage/other services (39%) through 172 district offices. Revenue comes from the spread between carrier buy rates and customer... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $196.43 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Expeditors International of Was
About Expeditors International of Was
Customs brokerage and other services generated 39% of Expeditors International's total revenues in 2025, with airfreight accounting for 36% and ocean freight for 25%, reflecting a shift from 2024 when ocean freight represented 30% of revenues. The company operates 172 district offices spanning Americas (70), Europe (45), Middle East/Africa/India (24), North Asia (17), and South Asia (16), employing approximately 20,000 people with no owned aircraft or ships. Exports from China and Hong Kong contributed 19% of total revenues in 2025.
Expeditors earns revenue primarily from the margin between carrier buy rates and customer sell rates, supplemented by fees for customs documentation, packing, insurance, and delivery arrangement. In airfreight consolidation, the company aggregates individual shipments, purchases cargo capacity from airlines at volume discounts, and resells space at rates below what shippers could negotiate individually. Ocean freight pricing uses a mix of fixed annual contracts and spot-market arrangements at the regional level. Personnel costs represent the single largest expense and are inherently sticky in the near term, exposing quarterly results to sudden demand shifts. The company competes against firms with significantly greater resources; the primary competitive factors cited are price and service quality. Expeditors differentiates on its proprietary, internally developed enterprise technology platform — a core function the company explicitly does not outsource.
Show full overview
Expeditors' revenue is particularly exposed to U.S.-China trade flows, with exports from China and Hong Kong contributing 19% of total revenues in 2025, down from 22% in 2024. The 10-K identifies this lane as susceptible to tariff disputes and notes that the United States undertook a 'substantial global tariff rebalancing effort' resulting in significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods, with retaliatory measures from China and Canada following. If these conditions produce a significant or prolonged decline in international trade volumes, the company's results could be adversely affected, though the 10-K acknowledges some volume is shifting to alternative routes as customers seek to mitigate China-specific tariff exposure.
See also: Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
From Expeditors International of Was's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-27Recent Developments — Expeditors International of Was
Latest news
- NEWS Renaissance Technologies LLC Acquires 79,800 Shares of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. $EXPD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS EXPD|Expeditors International of Washington Inc|Price:165.940|Chg%:-4.190 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS EXPD|Expeditors International of Washington Inc|Price:165.940|Chg%:-4.190 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com negative
- NEWS Expeditors International of Washington Inc (EXPD) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Expeditors to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-27T11:39:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicChina and Hong Kong exports19%10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 19% and 22% of our revenues and 15% and 17% of our operating income in 2025 and 2024, respectively, on exports from China and Hong Kong'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $196.43 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $188.91. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $163.32 reached (−16.9% from $196.43); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $188.91. Stop-loss: $188.91.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Expeditors International of Was trades at a P/E of 28.6 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover EXPD with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $181.
What does Expeditors International of Was do?Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight (36% of 2025 revenues),...
Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight (36% of 2025 revenues), ocean freight (25%), and customs brokerage/other services (39%) through 172 district offices. Revenue comes from the spread between carrier buy rates and customer sell rates plus ancillary service fees, with approximately 20,000 employees and no owned aircraft or ships.