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Expeditors International of Was (EXPD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.77 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight consolidation, ocean freight, customs brokerage, and warehousing through 172 district offices worldwide with ~20,000 employees. Revenue earned from margins on cargo space resold and... Read more

$156.77-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#3 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.82%
IncomeYield1.03%(5y avg 1.14%)Payout24.88%sustainable
Stop $146.61Target $154.16(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$146.38-6.6%13 analysts
$154.16our TP
$156.77price
$146.38mean
$95
$181

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.77 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Expeditors International of Was

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.3
P/E (Fwd)23.0
Mkt Cap$20.5B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn7.5%
ROE36.6%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta1.03
Dividend1.03%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicChina and Hong Kong19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 19% and 22% of our revenues and 15% and 17% of our operating income in 2025 and 2024, respectively, on exports from China and Hong Kong.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Roberto A. Martinez entered into an Employment Agreement as President, Global Products of Expeditors, effective June 1, 2025. Annual base salary $100,000 with performance bonus. Six-month non-compete and 12-month non-solicitation provisions.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
8.8
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $136.13Resistance $157.31

Price Targets

$147
$154
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.77 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $146.61. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXPD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $154.16 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $146.61. Stop-loss: $146.61.

What are the risks of investing in EXPD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is EXPD overvalued or undervalued?

Expeditors International of Was trades at a P/E of 25.3 (forward 23.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXPD?

22 analysts cover EXPD with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $146.

What does Expeditors International of Was do?Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight consolidation, ocean...

Expeditors International is a non-asset-based global logistics provider offering airfreight consolidation, ocean freight, customs brokerage, and warehousing through 172 district offices worldwide with ~20,000 employees. Revenue earned from margins on cargo space resold and service fees; no single customer exceeds 5% of revenues. China and Hong Kong exports generated 19% of 2025 revenues.

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