ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ZTO stock price target?

Take-profit $25.93 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $24.50.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ZTO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Target reached (2.1% upside); NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING.

Q: Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ZTO?

20 analysts cover ZTO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and... Read more

$25.40+2.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics

Stop $24.50Target $25.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1

Analyst target$28.81+13.4%18 analysts

$25.93our TP

$25.40price

$28.81mean

$23

$31

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.40 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.1% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Outperforming peers

Risks

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (3.1% away)

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5

P/E (Fwd)11.7

Mkt Cap$19.5B

EV/EBITDA0.5

Profit Mgn18.5%

ROE14.2%

Rev Growth12.3%

Beta-0.16

Dividend2.72%

Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish

IV57%elevated

Max Pain$15-40.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.715%1.16

Quality5.615%0.84

Growth5.215%0.78

Momentum3.710%0.37

Sentiment7.010%0.70

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank7.210%0.72

Technical Setup5.05%0.25

Risk Profile6.25%0.31

Catalyst5.35%0.27

Overall (Σ contributions)5.89

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

3.5

Rsi

5.0

Ma Position

9.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

63 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.12Resistance $25.97

Price Targets

$25

$26

A.Upside+2.1%

A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-19 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ZTO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.40 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.1% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $24.50. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ZTO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.93 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $24.50. Stop-loss: $24.50.

What are the risks of investing in ZTO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZTO?

20 analysts cover ZTO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. do?ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic...