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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-19). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $23.40. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $23.47. Engine's entry $23.40 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and... Read more

$23.47+11.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield23.18%
IncomeYield2.93%Payout41.83%sustainable
Entry $23.40(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $22.26Target $26.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$28.94+23.3%18 analysts
$26.05our TP
$23.47price
$28.94mean
$31

Wait for pullback to $23.40. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $23.47. Engine's entry $23.40 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.0Qual5.8Grw5.2Mom3.4Sent7.4Ins5.0Peer7.2Tech8.8Risk6.56.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$18.1B
EV/EBITDA0.4
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE14.2%
Rev Growth12.3%
Beta-0.18
Dividend2.93%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.2
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.07Resistance $25.97

Price Targets

$22
$23
$26
A.Upside+11.0%
A.R:R2.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZTO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $23.40. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $23.47. Engine's entry $23.40 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $26.05 (+11.0%), stop $22.26 (−5.4%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ZTO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.05 (+11.5% upside). Target $26.05 (+11.0%), stop $22.26 (−5.4%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $22.26.

What are the risks of investing in ZTO?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ZTO?

20 analysts cover ZTO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. do?ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic...

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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