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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $273.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away).

Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The... Read more

$273.55-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#1 of 8 Railroads
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.47%
IncomeYield2.04%(5y avg 2.21%)Payout45.10%sustainable
Stop $265.37Target $270.87(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$291.05+6.4%22 analysts
$270.87our TP
$273.55price
$291.05mean
$239
$330

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $273.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Union Pacific Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.5% away)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.6
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$163.3B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn29.2%
ROE40.7%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.99
Dividend2.04%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$150-45.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $248.50Resistance $276.40

Price Targets

$265
$271
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $273.55, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $270.87 (-1.0%), stop $265.37 (−3.1%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the UNP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $270.87 (-1.5% upside). Target $270.87 (-1.0%), stop $265.37 (−3.1%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $265.37.

What are the risks of investing in UNP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is UNP overvalued or undervalued?

Union Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UNP?

30 analysts cover UNP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $291.

What does Union Pacific Corporation do?Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies,...

Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The Railroad's diversified business mix includes Bulk, Industrial, and Premium. Union Pacific serves many of the fastest-growing U.S.

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