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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $266.58 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away).

Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The... Read more

$266.58+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#4 of 8 Railroads
Stop $254.34Target $269.29(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$288.96+8.4%23 analysts
$269.29our TP
$266.58price
$288.96mean
$239
$325

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $266.58 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.0% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.8
P/E (Fwd)19.4
Mkt Cap$157.2B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn29.2%
ROE40.7%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.97
Dividend2.08%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$160-40.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.3
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $240.00Resistance $274.79

Price Targets

$254
$269
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $266.58 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $254.34. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $269.29 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $254.34. Stop-loss: $254.34.

What are the risks of investing in UNP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is UNP overvalued or undervalued?

Union Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNP?

31 analysts cover UNP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $289.

What does Union Pacific Corporation do?Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies,...

Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The Railroad's diversified business mix includes Bulk, Industrial, and Premium. Union Pacific serves many of the fastest-growing U.S.

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