Union Pacific delivers 41% ROE, 29% operating margins, and ranks best-in-class on both return and margin metrics within the railroad peer group, with a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat streak, but trades near analyst resistance with negative asymmetry and a PEG of 3.26 suggesting the quality is already fully priced in.
Thesis pillars
- Best In Class Roe And Margins↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Streak Consistency↑Improving
- Price At Resistance Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026· older than 90 days
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Railroads
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $308.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.4% away).
Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $308.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Union Pacific Corporation
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 16, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: 99.1 | [Press Release of Union Pacific Corporation, dated October 1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000305/a2026-10x168xkexhibit991.htm)[6](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000305/a2026-10x168xkexhibit991.htm)[, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Arch...
Latest news
- NEWS Baird Downgrades Union Pacific to Neutral from Buy — fiscal.ai Nov 5, 2026 negative
- NEWS Union Pacific Corp Stock (UNP) Closed Up by 3.55% on Oct 22: A Full Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Union Pacific (UNP) CFO Jennifer Hamann To Retire After 35 Years - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 22, 2026 negative
- NEWS Union Pacific Corporation $UNP Stock Sold by QV Investors Inc. - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) Share Price, Forecast & Analysis - Stocks Down Under — Stocks Down Under Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-16Item 5.02MEDIUM99.1 | [Press Release of Union Pacific Corporation, dated October 1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000305/a2026-10x168xkexhibit991.htm)[6](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000305/a2026-10x168xkexhibit991.htm)[, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Arch...SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $308.53 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.4% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $295.57. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $298.24 reached (−3.3% from $308.53); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $295.57. Stop-loss: $295.57.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Union Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts rate UNP, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 24 analysts publish price targets averaging $331.
What does Union Pacific Corporation do?Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies,...
Company is the principal operating company of Union Pacific Corporation. One of America's most recognized companies, Union Pacific Railroad Company connects 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country by rail, providing a critical link in the global supply chain. The Railroad's diversified business mix includes Bulk, Industrial, and Premium. Union Pacific serves many of the fastest-growing U.S.