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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li (CP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.56 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away).

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) owns and operates the only freight railway spanning Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with approximately 20,000 miles of network transporting bulk commodities, merchandise, and intermodal traffic. Revenue is from rail transportation fees across a... Read more

$85.56+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#1 of 8 Railroads
Stop $81.74Target $86.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$90.99+6.3%11 analysts
$86.32our TP
$85.56price
$90.99mean
$74
$102

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.56 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.5% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.7
P/E (Fwd)19.6
Mkt Cap$75.6B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE8.6%
Rev Growth1.3%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.79%
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.13bearish
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierlimited suppliers of core railway equipment
    10-K Item 1A: 'Due to the complexity and specialized nature of core railway equipment and infrastructure...there are a limited number of suppliers of rail equipment and materials available'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-01-29Item 5.02LOW
    Marc Parent appointed to Board of Directors effective January 27, 2026, per CQP Holdco governance rights under LLC Agreement. No committee assignment yet. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $76.99Resistance $88.08

Price Targets

$82
$86
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.56 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $81.74. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.32 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $81.74. Stop-loss: $81.74.

What are the risks of investing in CP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CP overvalued or undervalued?

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li trades at a P/E of 25.7 (forward 19.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CP?

35 analysts cover CP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $91.

What does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li do?Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) owns and operates the only freight railway spanning Canada, the U.S., and Mexico,...

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) owns and operates the only freight railway spanning Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with approximately 20,000 miles of network transporting bulk commodities, merchandise, and intermodal traffic. Revenue is from rail transportation fees across a single operating segment; KCS was consolidated from April 2023.

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