Canadian Pacific Kansas City's 27% operating margins and strong balance sheet reflect an industrial franchise of real quality, but the stock is trading just 0.5% below its technical target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.1-to-1, three straight earnings misses, and deteriorating price internals — a combination that makes holding more defensible than adding.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margin Industrial Franchise→Stable
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Unfavorable Risk Reward Near Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li (CP) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Railroads
Wait for pullback to $89.03. Price sits above the model's entry target of $89.03; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City owns and operates the only freight railway spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico, covering approximately 20,000 route miles. The company generated $14,776 million in freight revenues in 2025 from Bulk (36%), Merchandise (46%), and Intermodal... Read more
Wait for pullback to $89.03. Price sits above the model's entry target of $89.03; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li
About Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li
Canadian Pacific Kansas City generated freight revenues of $14,776 million in 2025 ($14,223 million in 2024), with Merchandise traffic at 46% of freight revenues and Bulk commodities at 36% comprising the two dominant segments, alongside Intermodal at 18%. Energy, chemicals and plastics — including crude, refined fuels, and petrochemicals from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Alberta — represented 20% of total freight revenues, while Grain shipments from the Canadian prairies and U.S. northern plains accounted for 22%. The network spans approximately 20,000 route miles across Canada, the United States, and Mexico, operated through a single rail transportation segment.
CPKC earns revenue through freight rates negotiated directly with shippers in Canada and the U.S., while Mexican rates are registered with the ATTRAPI as maximum prices. Fuel surcharges tracked approximately 10% of freight revenues ($1,483 million) in 2025, tied to diesel price movements via the company's fuel cost adjustment program; fuel surcharge revenue fell $168 million year-over-year primarily due to lower fuel prices and the elimination of the Canadian federal carbon tax program effective April 1, 2025. Bulk traffic moves in unit trains on fixed origin-destination routes; Merchandise delivers to diverse industrial and consumer destinations; Intermodal connects the Port of Vancouver, Port of Lázaro Cárdenas, and Port of Montréal to inland North American markets. The majority of employees belong to labour unions; new four-year collective agreements with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference for train and engine and rail traffic controller divisions were reached May 30, 2025, following binding arbitration, with 3% annual wage increases through December 31, 2027.
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CPKC's Canadian grain exposure — 22% of freight revenues — operates under a structural rate cap: the Canada Transportation Act establishes a maximum revenue entitlement governing aggregate revenues from western Canadian export grain to the ports of Vancouver and Thunder Bay, limiting the company's pricing flexibility on its most seasonally concentrated traffic. Separately, CPKCM's Mexican operations rely on a government concession expiring in 2037 (first 40 years of a 50-year grant) that could be revoked for repeated compliance failures or unilateral rate overcharges, and the SICT may temporarily seize rail assets in the event of national emergency without guaranteed timely compensation.
See also: Industrials · Railroads
From Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li
Latest news
- NEWS Canadian Pacific Kansas City stock support test: Technical outlook - Traders Union — Traders Union neutral
- NEWS Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE:CP) Issues Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Canadian Stocks To Keep An Eye On - April 29th - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE:CP) Announces Quarterly Dividend of C$0.27 - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Announces 17.5% Dividend Incre - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-28T11:39:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCommodityGrain22%10-K Item 1: 'The Company's Grain business represented approximately 61% of bulk revenues and 22% of total Freight revenues in 2025'
- MEDIUMregulatoryCanada Transportation Act10-K Item 1: 'The majority of Canadian grain shipments are regulated by the Canadian government through the Canada Transportation Act'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $89.03. Price sits above the model's entry target of $89.03; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $86.16 reached (−5.5%), stop $85.91 (−6.1%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $86.16 reached (−5.5% from $91.13); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $86.16 reached (−5.5%), stop $85.91 (−6.1%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $85.91.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Overbought (RSI 83).
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li trades at a P/E of 29.3 (forward 21.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
35 analysts cover CP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.
What does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li do?Canadian Pacific Kansas City owns and operates the only freight railway spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico,...
Canadian Pacific Kansas City owns and operates the only freight railway spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico, covering approximately 20,000 route miles. The company generated $14,776 million in freight revenues in 2025 from Bulk (36%), Merchandise (46%), and Intermodal (18%) traffic, serving grain, energy, chemicals, and automotive shippers across North America.