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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $313.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away).

Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation ("Union Pacific"), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union... Read more

$313.44+1.0% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#7 of 8 Railroads
Stop $300.71Target $316.90(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$332.22+6.0%18 analysts
$316.90our TP
$313.44price
$332.22mean
$297
$372

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $313.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.0% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.3
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$70.1B
EV/EBITDA15.5
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.31
Dividend1.73%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV39%normal
Max Pain$160-49.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
4.4
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $284.77Resistance $323.37

Price Targets

$301
$317
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $313.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $300.71. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the NSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $316.90 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $300.71. Stop-loss: $300.71.

What are the risks of investing in NSC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is NSC overvalued or undervalued?

Norfolk Southern Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.3 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NSC?

27 analysts cover NSC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $332.

What does Norfolk Southern Corporation do?Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with...

Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation ("Union Pacific"), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific ("Merger Sub 1"), and Ruby Merger Sub 2 LLC, a Virginia limited liability company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific ("Merger Sub 2").

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