Skip to main content

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Railroads

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $318.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away).

Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation ("Union Pacific"), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union... Read more

$318.09-1.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#7 of 8 Railroads
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.81%
IncomeYield1.69%(5y avg 2.03%)Payout45.49%sustainable
Stop $310.22Target $315.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$335.29+5.4%17 analysts
$315.54our TP
$318.09price
$335.29mean
$297
$378

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $318.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Norfolk Southern Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.0% away)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.0
P/E (Fwd)23.7
Mkt Cap$71.9B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.29
Dividend1.69%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$110-65.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $296.73Resistance $321.98

Price Targets

$310
$316
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $318.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $310.22. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the NSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $315.54 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $310.22. Stop-loss: $310.22.

What are the risks of investing in NSC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.0% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is NSC overvalued or undervalued?

Norfolk Southern Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 23.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NSC?

27 analysts cover NSC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $335.

What does Norfolk Southern Corporation do?Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with...

Merger Agreement - On July 28, 2025, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation ("Union Pacific"), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific ("Merger Sub 1"), and Ruby Merger Sub 2 LLC, a Virginia limited liability company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific ("Merger Sub 2").

Related stocks: UNP (Union Pacific Corporation) · CP (Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li) · WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technolo) · CSX (CSX Corporation) · CNI (Canadian National Railway Compa)