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Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.23: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.90; Below-average business quality.

Delek US Holdings, Inc. engages in the integrated downstream energy business in the United States. The company operates in two segments Refining and Logistics. The Refining segment processes crude oil and other feedstock for the manufacture of various grades of gasoline, diesel... Read more

$46.23+0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#7 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Stop $43.04Target $46.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$48.15+4.2%13 analysts
$46.32our TP
$46.23price
$48.15mean
$34
$63

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.23: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.90; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Gulf Coast Region (PADD III)
Target reached (-9.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)26.7
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn-0.5%
ROE3.8%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta
Dividend2.19%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C2.90bearish
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicGulf Coast Region (PADD III)
    10-K Item 1A: 'our operations are focused primarily in the Gulf Coast Region (PADD III)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joseph Israel departed as EVP Refining and Renewables effective April 20, 2026; Amber Russell appointed EVP Refining effective April 20 with nearly three decades of energy industry experience.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan at April 20 annual meeting, replacing the 2016 plan. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.1% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Implied Vol
1.5
Short Interest
1.8
Days To Cover
4.1
High short interest justified: 17%Elevated put/call: 2.90High IV: 71%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roe
1.3
Roa
1.9
Current Ratio
3.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.02Resistance $47.27

Price Targets

$43
$46
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 389.2), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $46.23: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.90; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $43.04. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.32 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $43.04. Stop-loss: $43.04.

What are the risks of investing in DK?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Gulf Coast Region (PADD III); Target reached (-9.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is DK overvalued or undervalued?

Delek US Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 26.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DK?

23 analysts cover DK with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Delek US Holdings, Inc. do?Delek US Holdings, Inc. engages in the integrated downstream energy business in the United States. The company operates...

Delek US Holdings, Inc. engages in the integrated downstream energy business in the United States. The company operates in two segments Refining and Logistics. The Refining segment processes crude oil and other feedstock for the manufacture of various grades of gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, asphalt, and other petroleum-based products that are distributed through owned and third-party product terminals. It owns and operates refineries located in Tyler, Texas; El Dorado, Arkansas; Big Spring, Texas; and Krotz Springs, Louisiana. The Logistics segment gathers, transports, and stores crude oil and natural gas, intermediate, and refined products; and markets, distributes, transports, and stores refined products, as well as disposes and recycles water for third parties. It owns or leases crude oil transportation pipelines, refined product pipelines, crude oil gathering systems, and associated crude oil storage tanks; and owns and operates light product distribution terminals, as well as markets light products using third-party terminals. It serves oil companies, independent refiners and marketers, jobbers, distributors, utility and transportation companies, government, and independent retail fuel operators. Delek US Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

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