Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
UGP · Why this verdict
Why Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ultrapar Participacoes offers an exceptional valuation with a PEG of 0.05 and forward P/E of 8.1x, strong earnings growth, and an asymmetry ratio of 2.43 with 16% upside, but weak momentum and falling on-balance volume indicate the market has not yet recognized this value.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ultrapar trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.05 with a forward P/E of 8.1x and EV/EBITDA at the top decile of the scoring range, representing one of the most attractively valued names on a growth-adjusted basis. Valuation breakdown | The PEG-driven discount narrows as earnings growth of 10 out of 10 scoring is recognized by the market, with price rising at least 15% within 12 months toward the analyst target | →Stable |
| CounterUltrapar is a Brazilian energy company subject to currency risk, political risk, and commodity price exposure that can sustain deep valuation discounts for extended periods regardless of earnings growth | ||
Earnings growth scores at 10 out of 10 with consistent positive earnings surprises averaging 17% over the last four quarters, supported by revenue growth that is also scoring above average, indicating genuine fundamental improvement. Earnings | Earnings per share grows by at least 10% year-over-year over the next 12 months, sustaining the high growth score | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth confidence is only 0.67, and as a refining and marketing company Ultrapar's earnings are exposed to oil product margin compression that can rapidly reverse growth trends | ||
Despite strong fundamentals, the momentum score of 4.0 has failed the minimum threshold of 4.5, and on-balance volume is falling while RSI reads as oversold at 17, indicating that market participants are actively reducing exposure. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 30 and OBV turns positive within 6 months, signaling demand absorption of the current selling pressure | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 17 in an uptrend can represent a buying opportunity, and the technical score on support and resistance is a strong 9.4 out of 10, suggesting structural support is nearby | ||
With 16.1% upside to the analyst target of $5.54 and only 4.4% downside risk, the asymmetry ratio of 2.43 comfortably clears the required threshold, and analyst coverage of 8 firms provides a credible upside benchmark. Targets | Price reaches $5.54 or higher within 12 months as the valuation discount closes | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage can mean targets are stale or consensus is thin, and the leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 limits how much of the intrinsic value gain reaches equity holders | ||
Ultrapar trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.05 with a forward P/E of 8.1x and EV/EBITDA at the top decile of the scoring range, representing one of the most attractively valued names on a growth-adjusted basis.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG-driven discount narrows as earnings growth of 10 out of 10 scoring is recognized by the market, with price rising at least 15% within 12 months toward the analyst target
CounterUltrapar is a Brazilian energy company subject to currency risk, political risk, and commodity price exposure that can sustain deep valuation discounts for extended periods regardless of earnings growth
Earnings growth scores at 10 out of 10 with consistent positive earnings surprises averaging 17% over the last four quarters, supported by revenue growth that is also scoring above average, indicating genuine fundamental improvement.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share grows by at least 10% year-over-year over the next 12 months, sustaining the high growth score
CounterRevenue growth confidence is only 0.67, and as a refining and marketing company Ultrapar's earnings are exposed to oil product margin compression that can rapidly reverse growth trends
Despite strong fundamentals, the momentum score of 4.0 has failed the minimum threshold of 4.5, and on-balance volume is falling while RSI reads as oversold at 17, indicating that market participants are actively reducing exposure.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 30 and OBV turns positive within 6 months, signaling demand absorption of the current selling pressure
CounterAn RSI of 17 in an uptrend can represent a buying opportunity, and the technical score on support and resistance is a strong 9.4 out of 10, suggesting structural support is nearby
With 16.1% upside to the analyst target of $5.54 and only 4.4% downside risk, the asymmetry ratio of 2.43 comfortably clears the required threshold, and analyst coverage of 8 firms provides a credible upside benchmark.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price reaches $5.54 or higher within 12 months as the valuation discount closes
CounterLight analyst coverage can mean targets are stale or consensus is thin, and the leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 limits how much of the intrinsic value gain reaches equity holders
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.4 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 88)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.62
Upside
-9.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Technical at 4.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Quality at 4.5, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Value Peg Near Zero
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15x without corresponding earnings growth, signaling multiple expansion rather than value realization
- P2Strong Earnings Growth Profile
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the earnings outperformance trend
- P3Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution
Trip ifOBV remains in a declining trend and RSI stays below 25 for more than 60 days
- P4Favorable Asymmetry With Analyst Support
Trip ifPrice drops below $4.56 stop-loss level, more than 4% below current price, invalidating the support structure