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Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $176.29: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants under three concepts (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers) across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten countries as of December 30, 2025, with 714 company-owned locations. Revenue comes from restaurant food and beverage... Read more

$176.29+2.9% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#13 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.63%
IncomeYield1.69%(5y avg 1.53%)Payout44.50%sustainable
Stop $164.34Target $181.40(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$195.80+11.1%25 analysts
$181.40our TP
$176.29price
$195.80mean
$165
$234

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $176.29: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val4.7Qual4.7Grw4.8Mom4.8Sent7.2Ins3.9Peer5.4Tech4.5Risk5.65.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.78)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.3
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$11.6B
EV/EBITDA17.8
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth12.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend1.69%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.85bearish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$115-34.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas and Florida21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 21% of our company restaurants are located in Texas and Florida and, as a result, we are sensitive to economic and other trends and developments in those states.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    Elizabeth K. Ingram (CEO of White Castle System) appointed to Board of Directors on March 5, 2026, as an independent director due to restaurant industry expertise. No initial committee assignments.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Keith Humpich (interim CFO) approved for continued $100K/quarter stipend through June 30, 2026 to support transition; Mike Lenihan was appointed permanent CFO on December 3, 2025. Routine compensation arrangement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Kathleen M. Widmer retired from Board of Directors effective February 11, 2026, to focus on a new business venture. No disagreement with company on any matter relating to operations, policies, or practices.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=-0.0%)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $153.82Resistance $185.10

Price Targets

$164
$181
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.0% upside)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXRH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $176.29: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $164.34. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the TXRH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $181.40 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $164.34. Stop-loss: $164.34.

What are the risks of investing in TXRH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.3 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXRH?

37 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $196.

What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants under three concepts (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers)...

Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants under three concepts (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers) across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten countries as of December 30, 2025, with 714 company-owned locations. Revenue comes from restaurant food and beverage sales; approximately 21% of company restaurants are concentrated in Texas (101) and Florida (50).

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