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TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.Sell4.9·$167.78-1.57%
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Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $167.78, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants under three concepts (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers) across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten countries as of December 30, 2025, with 714 company-owned locations. Revenue comes from restaurant food and beverage... Read more

$167.78+6.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.73%
IncomeYield1.79%(5y avg 1.54%)Payout44.50%sustainable
Stop $156.04Target $178.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$197.96+18.0%23 analysts
$178.16our TP
$167.78price
$197.96mean
$234

Sell if holding. At $167.78, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.2%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.7
P/E (Fwd)21.9
Mkt Cap$11.0B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth12.8%
Beta0.81
Dividend1.79%
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV46%normal
Max Pain$135-19.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas and Florida21%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 21% of our company restaurants are located in Texas and Florida and, as a result, we are sensitive to economic and other trends and developments in those states.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    Elizabeth K. Ingram (CEO of White Castle System) appointed to Board of Directors on March 5, 2026, as an independent director due to restaurant industry expertise. No initial committee assignments.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Keith Humpich (interim CFO) approved for continued $100K/quarter stipend through June 30, 2026 to support transition; Mike Lenihan was appointed permanent CFO on December 3, 2025. Routine compensation arrangement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Kathleen M. Widmer retired from Board of Directors effective February 11, 2026, to focus on a new business venture. No disagreement with company on any matter relating to operations, policies, or practices.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Dividend Safety
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 179.0%
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $160.00Resistance $184.79

Price Targets

$156
$178
A.Upside+6.2%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXRH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $167.78, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $156.04. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the TXRH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $178.16 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $156.04. Stop-loss: $156.04.

What are the risks of investing in TXRH?

Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 21.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXRH?

36 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $198.

What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants under three concepts (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers)...

Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants under three concepts (Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers) across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten countries as of December 30, 2025, with 714 company-owned locations. Revenue comes from restaurant food and beverage sales; approximately 21% of company restaurants are concentrated in Texas (101) and Florida (50).

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