Texas Roadhouse offers a high-quality restaurant business with a strong Piotroski score and volume accumulation, but consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed death cross create meaningful near-term headwinds that limit the risk-reward to the downside.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
- Death Cross Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- Unfavorable Risk Reward→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $166.71: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Texas Roadhouse operates 816 restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 states and 10 countries under three concepts: Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers. The company earns revenue primarily from company-operated casual dining locations focused on moderately... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $166.71: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
About Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
Texas Roadhouse expanded its system-wide footprint to 816 restaurants across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and 10 foreign countries by December 30, 2025, with 714 company-owned and 102 franchised units spanning three concepts: Texas Roadhouse (648 company units), Bubba's 33 (56 company units), and Jaggers (10 company units). Texas is the largest single-state footprint at 108 total units, followed by Ohio (40) and Indiana (39). All 61 international restaurants operate under franchise arrangements.
Texas Roadhouse earns revenue almost entirely from company-operated casual dining restaurants, where guests pay at point-of-sale for dine-in and to-go orders. The model emphasizes everyday value through moderate price points and generous portions, targeting a broad consumer demographic without reliance on national advertising. Managing partners receive base salaries plus a percentage of each restaurant's pre-tax income, tying operator compensation directly to restaurant-level profitability and requiring refundable deposits — a structural retention mechanism. Beef is the dominant food cost driver, purchased primarily from four U.S.- and Canada-based suppliers that represent a significant share of the total beef marketplace; in 2025, higher-than-normal commodity inflation specifically relating to beef pressured restaurant margin, and the company anticipates these elevated cost conditions continuing into 2026. Alcoholic beverages contributed 8.8% of restaurant sales in 2025, supported by $5 all-day every-day beer and margarita specials.
Show full overview
Texas Roadhouse identifies approximately 21% of its company restaurants in Texas (101 units) and Florida (50 units) as a discrete geographic concentration, with both states subject to state-mandated minimum and tipped wage changes that could directly affect operating costs across a material share of the portfolio. Full-service casual dining is structurally labor-intensive — each restaurant maintains a managing partner, two to four managers, plus product and service coaches — meaning any upward wage mandate in Texas or Florida could weigh on restaurant-level margins in a configuration the company cannot easily relocate or reformat.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
From Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS 2 Reasons to Like TXRH and 1 to Stay Skeptical - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS UBS Group AG Purchases 522,509 Shares of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. $TXRH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS What To Expect From Texas Roadhouse’s (TXRH) Q1 Earnings - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-10-28T11:58:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicTexas and Florida21%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 21% of our company restaurants are located in Texas and Florida and, as a result, we are sensitive to economic and other trends and developments in those states.'
- MEDIUMSupplierfour beef suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We currently purchase our beef primarily from four beef suppliers ... These suppliers represent a significant portion of the total beef marketplace.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $166.71: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $157.25. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $186.71 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $157.25. Stop-loss: $157.25.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $207.
What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?Texas Roadhouse operates 816 restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 states and 10 countries under...
Texas Roadhouse operates 816 restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 states and 10 countries under three concepts: Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers. The company earns revenue primarily from company-operated casual dining locations focused on moderately priced, scratch-made food and attentive service.