Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $161.36: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 U.S. states and 10 foreign countries under Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers concepts. Revenue is generated from company-operated restaurant sales plus franchising... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $161.36: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicTexas and Florida21%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 21% of our company restaurants are located in Texas and Florida and, as a result, we are sensitive to economic and other trends and developments in those states'
- MEDIUMSupplierfour beef suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We currently purchase our beef primarily from four beef suppliers coming from the United States or Canada. These suppliers represent a significant portion of the total beef marketplace.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOWElizabeth K. Ingram appointed to Texas Roadhouse Board on March 5, 2026. CEO of White Castle System. No arrangements or understandings with other persons; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOWKeith Humpich (Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer) to receive continued $100K/quarter stipend through June 30, 2026 for supporting CFO transition to Mike Lenihan (appointed CFO December 3, 2025). Compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOWDirector Kathleen M. Widmer retired from Board effective February 11, 2026 to focus on new business venture. Decision not result of any disagreement with Company.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $161.36: Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $154.35. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $175.25 (+8.6% upside). Prior stop was $154.35. Stop-loss: $154.35.
Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (4).
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.2 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts cover TXRH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $195.
What does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. do?Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 U.S. states and 10...
Texas Roadhouse operates 816 casual dining restaurants (714 company-owned, 102 franchised) across 49 U.S. states and 10 foreign countries under Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers concepts. Revenue is generated from company-operated restaurant sales plus franchising royalties.