Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.38
TWLO · Why this verdict
Why Twilio (TWLO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 846% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.31 (n=10)
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $338,603,239 (1.077% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Above max pain $160
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:56d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.03
Upside
-14.2%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.38>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.03 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.6, Growth at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.3, Insider at 3.0, and Momentum at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.