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Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

Wait for pullback to $125.45. At $131.92 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $125.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.

Tapestry operates two luxury accessories brands: Coach (79.9% of FY2025 net sales, 931 stores globally) and kate spade new york (17.1%), after divesting Stuart Weitzman in August 2025. The company generated $7.0B in FY2025 net revenues, with 86% from direct-to-consumer channels... Read more

$131.92+13.2% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#2 of 5 Luxury Goods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.75%
IncomeYield1.22%(5y avg 4.06%)Payout47.26%sustainable
Entry $125.45(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $113.97Target $148.55(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1Setup A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$165.05+25.1%19 analysts
$148.55our TP
$131.92price
$165.05mean
$88
$200

Wait for pullback to $125.45. At $131.92 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $125.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.27, quality 8.3/10, growth 8.9/10). Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Tapestry, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.1
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$26.6B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE60.9%
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta1.47
Dividend1.22%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$85-35.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $128.34Resistance $149.97

Price Targets

$114
$125
$149
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $125.45. At $131.92 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $125.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.27, quality 8.3/10, growth 8.9/10). Target $148.55 (+12.6%), stop $113.97 (−15.7%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $148.55 (+13.2% upside). Target $148.55 (+12.6%), stop $113.97 (−15.7%), Setup A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $113.97.

What are the risks of investing in TPR?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.

Is TPR overvalued or undervalued?

Tapestry, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.1 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TPR?

28 analysts cover TPR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $165.

What does Tapestry, Inc. do?Tapestry operates two luxury accessories brands: Coach (79.9% of FY2025 net sales, 931 stores globally) and kate spade...

Tapestry operates two luxury accessories brands: Coach (79.9% of FY2025 net sales, 931 stores globally) and kate spade new york (17.1%), after divesting Stuart Weitzman in August 2025. The company generated $7.0B in FY2025 net revenues, with 86% from direct-to-consumer channels and approximately 40% of net sales from international operations. No single wholesale customer exceeded 10% of any segment's net sales.

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