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TPRTapestry, Inc.Buy Wait6.6·$149.39-1.06%
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Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

Wait for pullback to $131.38. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $149.39. Engine's entry $131.38 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Tapestry owns the Coach and kate spade new york fashion brands, operating 931 Coach stores and 360 kate spade stores globally, with direct-to-consumer channels representing approximately 86% of fiscal 2025 total net sales of $7.0 billion. Coach accounted for 79.9% of total net... Read more

$149.39+16.9% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 5 Luxury Goods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.01%
IncomeYield1.06%(5y avg 4.06%)Payout47.26%sustainable
Entry $131.38(support + ATR)Stop $124.85Target $153.61(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$164.47+10.1%19 analysts
$153.61our TP
$149.39price
$164.47mean
$88
$205

Wait for pullback to $131.38. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $149.39. Engine's entry $131.38 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.9% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Tapestry, Inc.

About Tapestry, Inc.

Tapestry's Coach brand generated $5.6 billion in net sales in fiscal 2025 — 79.9% of the company's total — while kate spade new york contributed $1.2 billion (17.1%); Stuart Weitzman was divested to Caleres in August 2025. The combined portfolio operated 931 Coach stores and 360 kate spade stores globally, with international markets representing approximately 40% of total net sales.

Tapestry sells handbags, accessories, footwear, and lifestyle products through direct-to-consumer channels — retail stores, outlet locations, e-commerce, and concession shop-in-shops — that represented about 86% of fiscal 2025 net sales, with wholesale through department stores accounting for roughly 13% and licensing for the remaining 1%. Coach's handbag category alone represented 57.6% of that brand's segment revenue. Independent manufacturers in Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines, and India supply Coach products; kate spade sources primarily from Vietnam, Cambodia, mainland China, and the Philippines. No individual vendor exceeded 10% of either brand's total inventory purchases. Total marketing expenditure reached $744.5 million in fiscal 2025, nearly 11% of net sales, up from $616.8 million (over 9%) in fiscal 2024. Tariffs affecting primary manufacturing geographies — particularly Vietnam, Cambodia, and mainland China — may impact margins depending on trade policy outcomes following changes in U.S. trade administration beginning January 2025.

Show full overview

Kate spade new york's net sales declined to $1.20 billion in fiscal 2025 from $1.33 billion in fiscal 2024 and $1.42 billion in fiscal 2023 — a two-year decline of 16% — while Coach grew from $4.96 billion to $5.60 billion over the same period. The 10-K flags that rapidly changing fashion trends and shifting digital-engagement behavior may render brand positioning tarnished or undesirable if product designs or marketing campaigns miss the target consumer. Geopolitical uncertainty in U.S.-China relations, flagged explicitly in Item 1A, additionally exposes the international revenue base to trade-related demand shifts and foreign currency headwinds that management cannot fully control.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goods

From Tapestry, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.0
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$30.5B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE60.9%
Rev Growth21.2%
Beta1.45
Dividend1.06%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$220+47.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductCoach80%
    10-K Item 1: 'Coach... This segment represented 79.9% of total net sales in fiscal 2025.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicinternational operations40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 40.0% of our net sales coming from operations outside of United States for fiscal year 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02LOW
    Board size increased from 10 to 11 members; Matthew Madrigal elected as non-executive director effective April 6, 2026. Standard compensation: $100,000 annual cash retainer plus $200,000 annual equity grant. No arrangements with any other person cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $128.71Resistance $156.74

Price Targets

$125
$131
$154
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TPR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $131.38. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $149.39. Engine's entry $131.38 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-0.9% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $153.61 (+2.8%), stop $124.85 (−19.7%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TPR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $153.61 (+16.9% upside). Target $153.61 (+2.8%), stop $124.85 (−19.7%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $124.85.

What are the risks of investing in TPR?

Concentration risk — Product: Coach (79.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.7): -1.5.

Is TPR overvalued or undervalued?

Tapestry, Inc. trades at a P/E of 46.0 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TPR?

28 analysts cover TPR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $164.

What does Tapestry, Inc. do?Tapestry owns the Coach and kate spade new york fashion brands, operating 931 Coach stores and 360 kate spade stores...

Tapestry owns the Coach and kate spade new york fashion brands, operating 931 Coach stores and 360 kate spade stores globally, with direct-to-consumer channels representing approximately 86% of fiscal 2025 total net sales of $7.0 billion. Coach accounted for 79.9% of total net sales; the Stuart Weitzman brand was divested to Caleres in August 2025.

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