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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Sell6.5·$81.96
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The business combines high financial quality — Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, 53% return on equity, and 45% year-over-year growth — with an attractively priced forward multiple of 12.3x; however, with the current price just 1.5% below the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the setup favors maintaining an existing position rather than adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Thin Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation Low Peg↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Piotroski Quality→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 4, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. At $81.96, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$81.96+4.2% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.84%
IncomeYield2.64%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout51.59%sustainable
Stop $76.22Analyst target $85.43(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst consensus$98.20+19.8%10 analysts with price targets
$85.43Analyst target
$81.96price
$98.20mean
$50
$136

Sell if holding. At $81.96, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 29, 2026

Recent Developments — Kontoor Brands, Inc.

Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.87
Dividend2.64%
Analysts with ratings15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV69%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
1.0
Gap
4.0
52w Position
8.6
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.70%=HEAVYMomentum 8.4>=5.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $63.93Resistance $83.95

Price Targets

$76
$85
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 0.70%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $81.96, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $76.22. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Analyst target: $85.43 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $76.22. Stop-loss: $76.22.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.2%.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

15 analysts rate KTB, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $98.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · GIII (G-III Apparel Group, LTD.)
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