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Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (53.0%).

Kontoor Brands is a global apparel company with three reportable segments — Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen (acquired May 2025 for ~$957.5M) — selling denim, outdoor, and workwear products in 90+ countries. The US Wholesale channel generates ~64% of net revenues; Walmart alone... Read more

$64.03+25.9% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.77%
IncomeYield3.30%(5y avg 3.41%)Payout42.34%sustainable
Stop $59.84Target $80.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$92.67+44.7%9 analysts
$80.62our TP
$64.03price
$92.67mean
$50
$131

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (53.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Kontoor Brands, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (53.0%)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.0
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE53.2%
Rev Growth45.0%
Beta0.93
Dividend3.30%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.93bearish
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomertop ten customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Talent and Compensation Committee adopted new Executive Severance Plan providing eligible executives including named executive officers with severance benefits upon qualifying termination. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.69Resistance $84.99

Price Targets

$60
$81
A.Upside+25.9%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (53.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $59.84. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.62 (+25.9% upside). Prior stop was $59.84. Stop-loss: $59.84.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (53.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

13 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands is a global apparel company with three reportable segments — Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen (acquired...

Kontoor Brands is a global apparel company with three reportable segments — Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen (acquired May 2025 for ~$957.5M) — selling denim, outdoor, and workwear products in 90+ countries. The US Wholesale channel generates ~64% of net revenues; Walmart alone accounted for 30% of total net revenues in 2025.

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