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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Hold7.1·$77.48-2.20%
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Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$77.48+3.8% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.68%
IncomeYield2.68%(5y avg 3.44%)Payout42.34%sustainable
Stop $72.06Target $80.39(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$92.40+19.3%10 analysts
$80.39our TP
$77.48price
$92.40mean
$50
$131

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.8%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE53.2%
Rev Growth45.0%
Beta0.93
Dividend2.68%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$110+42.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $61.47Resistance $82.22

Price Targets

$72
$80
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $80.39 (+3.8%), stop $72.06 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.39 (+3.8% upside). Target $80.39 (+3.8%), stop $72.06 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $72.06.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KTB?

13 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company)
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