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Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $72.65, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (53.0%).

Kontoor Brands is a global lifestyle apparel company with a portfolio led by Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen (acquired May 2025 for ~$957.5M). Products are sold through wholesale and DTC channels in the US and internationally, with presence in 90+ countries. In 2025, ~77% of... Read more

$72.65+10.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
Stop $67.58Target $80.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$92.67+27.6%9 analysts
$80.62our TP
$72.65price
$92.67mean
$50
$131

Sell if holding. At $72.65, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (53.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (53.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.8
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE47.1%
Rev Growth45.6%
Beta1.07
Dividend2.94%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$35-51.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHSupplierAsia manufacturers77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Talent and Compensation Committee approved new Executive Severance Plan for eligible employees including named executive officers. Compensatory arrangement; no departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.03Resistance $80.00

Price Targets

$68
$81
A.Upside+11.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $72.65, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (53.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $67.58. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.62 (+10.9% upside). Prior stop was $67.58. Stop-loss: $67.58.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (30.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (53.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

13 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands is a global lifestyle apparel company with a portfolio led by Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen (acquired...

Kontoor Brands is a global lifestyle apparel company with a portfolio led by Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen (acquired May 2025 for ~$957.5M). Products are sold through wholesale and DTC channels in the US and internationally, with presence in 90+ countries. In 2025, ~77% of units were sourced from independent Asian manufacturers.

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