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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Sell6.6·$72.94
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The business combines high financial quality — Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, 53% return on equity, and 45% year-over-year growth — with an attractively priced forward multiple of 12.3x; however, with the current price just 1.5% below the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the setup favors maintaining an existing position rather than adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Thin Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation Low Peg↓Deteriorating
  • Strong Piotroski Quality→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. At $72.94, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$72.94+17.1% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 13 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.58%
IncomeYield3.10%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout51.59%sustainable
Stop $68.48Target $85.43(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$98.20+34.6%10 analysts
$85.43our TP
$72.94price
$98.20mean
$50
$136

Sell if holding. At $72.94, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA8.3
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.90
Dividend3.10%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$50-31.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.3
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.5
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 0.82%=HEAVYEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.5>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $62.47Resistance $74.49

Price Targets

$68
$85
A.Upside+17.1%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 0.82%=heavy

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $72.94, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $68.48. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.43 (+17.1% upside). Prior stop was $68.48. Stop-loss: $68.48.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

14 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · GIII (G-III Apparel Group, LTD.)
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