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TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedBuy Wait6.4·$44.71+2.45%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Trip.com has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters — including a 245% positive surprise in one quarter — with 21% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, 53% gross margins, and a forward price-to-earnings of just 10.1 times, making it one of the most favorably valued high-quality growth names in travel services, though near-term technical momentum is negative.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat High Margin PlatformStable
  • Sustained Earnings Beat CatalystDeteriorating
  • Undervalued Growth At DiscountDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Wait for pullback to $42.28. BUY gates pass at $44.71, but weak growth and below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $42.28 (Buy At Market Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts... Read more

$44.71+22.2% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 14 Travel Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.57%Payout0.00%sustainable
Entry $42.28(Buy At Market Sticky)Stop $39.81Target $54.62(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$60.69+35.7%29 analysts
$54.62our TP
$44.71price
$60.69mean
$75

Wait for pullback to $42.28. BUY gates pass at $44.71, but weak growth and below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $42.28 (Buy At Market Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Deep value: 56% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=consumer cyclical 2/10 self excluded). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 24, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.5
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$27.5B
EV/EBITDA-1.2
Profit Mgn48.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth17.2%
Beta-0.03
Dividend0.57%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C3.44bearish
IV50%normal
Max Pain$25-44.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
52w Position
1.3
Support Resistance
1.5
Gap
4.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
6.8
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.7>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Consumer Cyclical 2/10 self excludedRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.32Resistance $45.61

Price Targets

$40
$42
$55
A.Upside+22.2%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %4%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts31
Consensus4.3/5
Avg Target$61

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-24 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCOM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $42.28. BUY gates pass at $44.71, but weak growth and below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $42.28 (Buy At Market Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Deep value: 56% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal). Target $54.62 (+22.2%), stop $39.81 (−12.3%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.62 (+22.2% upside). Target $54.62 (+22.2%), stop $39.81 (−12.3%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $39.81.

What are the risks of investing in TCOM?

Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TCOM overvalued or undervalued?

Trip.com Group Limited trades at a P/E of 6.5 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TCOM?

31 analysts cover TCOM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Trip.com Group Limited do?Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation,...

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

Related stocks: BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · GBTG (Global Business Travel Group, I) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd)
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