Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Negative momentum.
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury homes across single-family, attached, and urban high-rise formats for move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and first-time buyers in 24 states and D.C. Delivered 11,292 homes from 556 communities in fiscal 2025 with a $5.49 billion... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our revenues and income from operations are concentrated in California'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUMKarl K. Mistry appointed CEO and added to Board effective March 30, 2026, succeeding Douglas C. Yearley Jr. who became Executive Chairman per previously announced succession plan. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $141.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $152.82 (+7.6%), stop $133.78 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $152.82 (+7.6% upside). Target $152.82 (+7.6%), stop $133.78 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $133.78.
Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Negative momentum.
Toll Brothers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
24 analysts cover TOL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $170.
What does Toll Brothers, Inc. do?Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury homes across single-family, attached, and urban high-rise formats for...
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury homes across single-family, attached, and urban high-rise formats for move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and first-time buyers in 24 states and D.C. Delivered 11,292 homes from 556 communities in fiscal 2025 with a $5.49 billion backlog; also offers mortgage, title, insurance, and architectural/engineering services.