Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $132.34 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential homes across 24 states and DC, operating 446 selling communities with a fiscal 2025 backlog of $5.49 billion (4,647 homes). Revenue is generated from move-up, first-time luxury, active-adult, and second-home buyers;... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $132.34 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Toll Brothers, Inc.
Latest news
- Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Given Consensus Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Brokerages - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- Toll Brothers Announces Final Opportunity for Luxury Living at Santa Rosa Valley Estates in California - markets.busines — markets.businessinsider.com positive
- Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- TOLL BROTHERS ($TOL) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our revenues and income from operations is generated from California.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUMKarl K. Mistry appointed CEO effective March 30, 2026 per previously announced succession plan, succeeding Douglas Yearley who became Executive Chairman. Mistry also joined the Board with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $132.34 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $123.77. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $151.54 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $123.77. Stop-loss: $123.77.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Toll Brothers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.4 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover TOL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $168.
What does Toll Brothers, Inc. do?Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential homes across 24 states and DC, operating 446 selling...
Toll Brothers designs, builds, and sells luxury residential homes across 24 states and DC, operating 446 selling communities with a fiscal 2025 backlog of $5.49 billion (4,647 homes). Revenue is generated from move-up, first-time luxury, active-adult, and second-home buyers; 11,292 homes delivered in fiscal 2025. California generates a significant and above-average-margin portion of revenues.