Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.85
TEX · Why this verdict
Why Terex (TEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Terex posted 41% year-over-year revenue growth, the strongest in its industry peer group, combined with a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, indicating both top-line momentum and balance-sheet health. Growth | Revenue growth sustaining above 20% year-over-year in the next reported annual period would confirm the growth profile is structural rather than a one-year catch-up. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy construction and farm machinery revenues are highly cyclical and can revert sharply when end-market capital expenditure cycles turn, particularly in infrastructure and agricultural sectors. | ||
Terex beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 reported quarters with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, reflecting consistent operational outperformance relative to analyst expectations. Earnings | Earnings-per-share positive surprise above 10% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm management guidance is consistently conservative. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarterly beat in May 2026 came in at 26.4% above a low $0.78 estimate, and the sequential trend of declining estimates may mean the high baseline is set on a one-quarter anomaly. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 19.0x is among the most extreme readings possible, indicating a large portion of active options market participants are buying downside protection, which typically reflects either institutional hedging or anticipation of a significant price decline. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falling below 3.0 within the next 60 days would signal the institutional hedging overhang has resolved and sentiment has normalized. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios can be a contrarian indicator, and if the anticipated decline does not materialize the short-term forced buying from put sellers could amplify any upside. | ||
With the stock at $65.29 and the analyst-derived take-profit at $66.16, the reward-to-risk ratio is 0.19x — offering only 1.3% potential gain against 7% potential loss — making this an unfavorable entry regardless of the underlying growth story. Targets | A price pullback below $56, more than 14% below current levels, would restore a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5x against the same price targets. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum indicators are strongly bullish with a golden cross confirmed, RSI at 64, and MACD positive, suggesting the technical setup favors continuation rather than mean reversion. | ||
Terex posted 41% year-over-year revenue growth, the strongest in its industry peer group, combined with a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, indicating both top-line momentum and balance-sheet health.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustaining above 20% year-over-year in the next reported annual period would confirm the growth profile is structural rather than a one-year catch-up.
CounterHeavy construction and farm machinery revenues are highly cyclical and can revert sharply when end-market capital expenditure cycles turn, particularly in infrastructure and agricultural sectors.
Terex beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 reported quarters with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, reflecting consistent operational outperformance relative to analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings-per-share positive surprise above 10% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm management guidance is consistently conservative.
CounterThe most recent quarterly beat in May 2026 came in at 26.4% above a low $0.78 estimate, and the sequential trend of declining estimates may mean the high baseline is set on a one-quarter anomaly.
The put-to-call ratio of 19.0x is among the most extreme readings possible, indicating a large portion of active options market participants are buying downside protection, which typically reflects either institutional hedging or anticipation of a significant price decline.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falling below 3.0 within the next 60 days would signal the institutional hedging overhang has resolved and sentiment has normalized.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios can be a contrarian indicator, and if the anticipated decline does not materialize the short-term forced buying from put sellers could amplify any upside.
With the stock at $65.29 and the analyst-derived take-profit at $66.16, the reward-to-risk ratio is 0.19x — offering only 1.3% potential gain against 7% potential loss — making this an unfavorable entry regardless of the underlying growth story.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A price pullback below $56, more than 14% below current levels, would restore a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5x against the same price targets.
CounterMomentum indicators are strongly bullish with a golden cross confirmed, RSI at 64, and MACD positive, suggesting the technical setup favors continuation rather than mean reversion.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Terex Corporation delivered 41% revenue growth year-over-year and has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target leaving only 1.3% upside against 7% downside, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 19x signals hedging pressure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 147% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $504,373 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 100.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.11
Upside
-1.3%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 3.8, Insider at 5.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any subsequent annual report, indicating the 41% surge was a cyclical peak rather than a structural shift.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P3Options Market Hedging Pressure
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 5.0 for more than 30 consecutive trading days, suggesting persistent institutional concern rather than a transient hedging event.
- P4Limited Entry Upside
Trip ifStock price rises above $72, exceeding the current analyst target by more than 9%, without a corresponding upward revision to analyst price targets.