Greif Inc. (GEF) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. At $65.49, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Greif is a global producer of industrial packaging products—steel, fibre, and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, and closure systems—and paperboard and corrugated products, with operations in over 35 countries. It serves chemicals, food/beverage, petroleum, and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $65.49, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicRussia10-K Item 1A: 'our operations in Russia accounted for approximately 3% of our net sales, approximately 9% of our operating profit'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-05Item 1.01MEDIUMOn February 27, 2026, Greif entered into a third amended and restated senior secured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase, providing an $800M revolving facility and $100M term loan A-1, both maturing February 27, 2031.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-05Item 1.02MEDIUMPrior senior secured credit agreement terminated and replaced by the New Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase effective February 27, 2026. No default cited; routine refinancing.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-05Item 2.04LOWAccelerating obligation in connection with termination of prior credit facility upon entry into new senior secured credit agreement on February 27, 2026. No default.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $65.49, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $61.66. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.03 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $61.66. Stop-loss: $61.66.
Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Greif Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover GEF with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $78.
What does Greif Inc. do?Greif is a global producer of industrial packaging products—steel, fibre, and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk...
Greif is a global producer of industrial packaging products—steel, fibre, and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, and closure systems—and paperboard and corrugated products, with operations in over 35 countries. It serves chemicals, food/beverage, petroleum, and automotive sectors; no single customer accounts for a principal portion of total operations.