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Greif Inc. (GEF) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

Sell if holding. At $62.87, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. Revenue spans chemicals, food, petroleum, automotive, and other industries, with no single... Read more

$62.87+5.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 16 Packaging & Containers
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.53%(5y avg 3.14%)Payout89.26%at-risk
Stop $60.36Target $66.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$76.20+21.2%5 analysts
$66.29our TP
$62.87price
$76.20mean
$90

Sell if holding. At $62.87, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Greif Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.0
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA7.5
Profit Mgn24.4%
ROE
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.83
Dividend3.53%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$35-44.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicnon-U.S. operations37%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 37% of our fiscal 2024 sales derived from non-U.S. operations'
  • LOWGeographicRussia3.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our operations in Russia accounted for approximately 3% of our net sales, approximately 9% of our operating profit and approximately 2% of our total assets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Greif terminated its Prior Credit Agreement on February 27, 2026, replaced in its entirety by a new Third Amended and Restated senior secured credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank providing $800M revolving and $100M term loan facilities maturing February 27, 2031.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.4
Rsi
3.5
Obv
5.4
Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 353.0%
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $62.23Resistance $70.65

Price Targets

$60
$66
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $62.87, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $60.36. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the GEF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.29 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $60.36. Stop-loss: $60.36.

What are the risks of investing in GEF?

Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is GEF overvalued or undervalued?

Greif Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEF?

10 analysts cover GEF with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Greif Inc. do?Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global...

Greif is a global industrial packaging producer with operations in 35+ countries across three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. Revenue spans chemicals, food, petroleum, automotive, and other industries, with no single customer considered principal to total operations.

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