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Sunoco LP (SUN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Sunoco LP distributes motor fuel and operates energy infrastructure across 32 countries in North America, the Greater Caribbean, and Europe through four segments: Fuel Distribution (largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas), Pipeline Systems (14,000+ miles),... Read more

$72.20-1.2% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield0.87%
IncomeYield5.30%(5y avg 7.06%)Payout93.32%at-risk
Stop $68.50Target $71.35(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$74.13+2.7%8 analysts
$71.35our TP
$72.20price
$74.13mean
$64
$80

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Sunoco LP

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: refined motor fuels revenue (92.0%)
Target reached (-10.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)22.5
Mkt Cap$13.3B
EV/EBITDA10.9
Profit Mgn3.1%
ROE15.4%
Rev Growth106.4%
Beta0.47
Dividend5.30%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish
IV26%low

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductrefined motor fuels revenue92%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of refined motor fuels accounted for approximately 92% of Sunoco’s total revenues and 42% of Sunoco’s profit for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
1.0
Net Margin
1.6
Roa
2.9
Operating Margin
3.2
Roe
5.1
Current Ratio
5.2
Moat
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 12% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
9.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $63.92Resistance $72.81

Price Targets

$69
$71
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-43.1% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -8.7%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.08% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SUN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $72.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $68.50. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SUN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.35 (-1.2% upside). Prior stop was $68.50. Stop-loss: $68.50.

What are the risks of investing in SUN?

Concentration risk — Product: refined motor fuels revenue (92.0%); Target reached (-10.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is SUN overvalued or undervalued?

Sunoco LP trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 22.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SUN?

12 analysts cover SUN with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $74.

What does Sunoco LP do?Sunoco LP distributes motor fuel and operates energy infrastructure across 32 countries in North America, the Greater...

Sunoco LP distributes motor fuel and operates energy infrastructure across 32 countries in North America, the Greater Caribbean, and Europe through four segments: Fuel Distribution (largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas), Pipeline Systems (14,000+ miles), Terminals (160+), and Refinery. Over 15 billion gallons are distributed annually to ~11,000 branded locations plus dealers and commercial customers.

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