Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $245.81: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest US refiners with approximately 3.0 million barrels/day of crude capacity across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast facilities. It also owns approximately 64% of MPLX (large-cap midstream MLP) and operates a Renewable Diesel segment.
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $245.81: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-13Item 1.02MEDIUMMPC terminated its 2022 Revolving Credit Agreement upon entering a new $5.0 billion five-year revolving credit facility on April 7, 2026. No amounts were outstanding under the prior facility at termination.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $245.81: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $231.47. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $242.78 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $231.47. Stop-loss: $231.47.
Target reached (-8.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MPC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $249.
What does Marathon Petroleum Corporation do?Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest US refiners with approximately 3.0 million barrels/day of crude capacity...
Marathon Petroleum is one of the largest US refiners with approximately 3.0 million barrels/day of crude capacity across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast facilities. It also owns approximately 64% of MPLX (large-cap midstream MLP) and operates a Renewable Diesel segment.