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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $260.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away).

Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company operating approximately 3.0M bpd of crude oil refining capacity across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. It also owns ~64% of MPLX LP (midstream) and produces renewable diesel;... Read more

$260.66-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.58%
IncomeYield1.49%(5y avg 2.38%)Payout25.15%sustainable
Stop $243.25Target $258.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$258.78-0.7%18 analysts
$258.86our TP
$260.66price
$258.78mean
$186
$335

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $260.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.1% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$76.8B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE27.5%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.53
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV43%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 1.02MEDIUM
    MPC terminated its 2022 Revolving Credit Agreement on April 7, 2026, replacing it with a new $5B five-year revolving credit facility. No borrowings were outstanding at termination.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-13Item 1.01LOW
    MPC entered into a new $5B five-year revolving credit agreement on April 7, 2026 (matures April 7, 2031) for general corporate purposes. Replaces the 2022 credit agreement; no borrowings outstanding.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-13Item 2.03LOW
    Creation of direct financial obligation: $5B unsecured revolving credit facility entered April 7, 2026, maturing April 7, 2031, for general corporate purposes. No amounts drawn at signing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $218.48Resistance $264.14

Price Targets

$243
$259
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $260.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $258.86 (-0.7%), stop $243.25 (−7.2%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $258.86 (-0.6% upside). Target $258.86 (-0.7%), stop $243.25 (−7.2%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $243.25.

What are the risks of investing in MPC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Is MPC overvalued or undervalued?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MPC?

24 analysts cover MPC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $259.

What does Marathon Petroleum Corporation do?Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company operating approximately 3.0M bpd of...

Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company operating approximately 3.0M bpd of crude oil refining capacity across Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. It also owns ~64% of MPLX LP (midstream) and produces renewable diesel; refined products are sold to ~7,882 Marathon-branded outlets and wholesale customers.

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