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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $258.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away).

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three... Read more

$258.93-1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.14%
IncomeYield1.83%(5y avg 3.41%)Payout33.53%sustainable
Stop $244.72Target $257.63(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$256.26-1.0%19 analysts
$257.63our TP
$258.93price
$256.26mean
$181
$300

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $258.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Valero Energy Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.1% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$78.0B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE15.8%
Rev Growth6.6%
Beta0.57
Dividend1.83%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV57%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOW
    Eric A. Fisher, SVP Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale, informed Valero of plans to retire on or about July 1, 2026. He will help transition responsibilities internally per Valero's succession plan. No successor named; no reason cited beyond retirement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.1
52w Position
10.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
7.1
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $227.25Resistance $262.89

Price Targets

$245
$258
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $258.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $257.63 (-0.5%), stop $244.72 (−5.8%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $257.63 (-1.9% upside). Target $257.63 (-0.5%), stop $244.72 (−5.8%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $244.72.

What are the risks of investing in VLO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.1% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Is VLO overvalued or undervalued?

Valero Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VLO?

25 analysts cover VLO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $256.

What does Valero Energy Corporation do?Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels...

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

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