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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $252.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.6% away).

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three... Read more

$252.44-0.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#13 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Stop $235.35Target $249.46(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$250.44-0.8%18 analysts
$249.46our TP
$252.44price
$250.44mean
$181
$292

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $252.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.6% away)
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.2
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$75.1B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE8.3%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta0.61
Dividend1.91%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.48bearish
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommoditycorn sourced from Mid-Continent region
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Ethanol segment relies on corn sourced from local farmers and commercial elevators in the Mid-Continent region of the U.S.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -2.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.0
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $214.71Resistance $254.55

Price Targets

$235
$249
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $252.44 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $235.35. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VLO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $249.46 (-0.9% upside). Prior stop was $235.35. Stop-loss: $235.35.

What are the risks of investing in VLO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is VLO overvalued or undervalued?

Valero Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 33.2 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VLO?

26 analysts cover VLO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $250.

What does Valero Energy Corporation do?Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels...

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

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