Valero Energy has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 25% above consensus and maintains a strong financial-health score, but weakening price momentum, falling on-balance volume, and a stock trading above its analyst target combine to limit the near-term investment case in a challenging refining margin environment.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Strong Financial Health Score↑Improving
- Negative Price Momentum Signal↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $365.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $365.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 21, 2026
Recent Developments — Valero Energy Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Valero Energy (VLO) Is Up 2.53% in One Week: What You Should Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Valero Energy Corporation $VLO Stock: Pinnacle Associates Ltd. Cuts Position - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Valero Energy's Q3 Earnings Approach: Higher Refining Margins Fuel Optimism - TradingView — TradingView Oct 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) Share Price, Forecast & Analysis - Stocks Down Under — Stocks Down Under Oct 20, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What Did Valero Stock Investors Miss Before The Run? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 14, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierMid-Continent corn10-K Item 1A: 'Our Ethanol segment relies on corn sourced from local farmers and commercial elevators in the Mid-Continent region of the U.S.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUMSVP Product Supply, Trading and Wholesale Eric A. Fisher informed Valero of intent to retire on or about July 1, 2026. Plans to transition responsibilities internally per Valero's succession plan. No external successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $365.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $384.30 (+5.2%), stop $339.77 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.9/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $384.30 (+5.2% upside). Analyst target $384.30 (+5.2%), stop $339.77 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $339.77.
Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Valero Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
25 analysts rate VLO, with a consensus score of 3.4/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $427.
What does Valero Energy Corporation do?Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels...
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.