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STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S (STWD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. At $16.90, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Starwood Property Trust is a diversified real estate finance REIT (externally managed by Starwood Capital Group) with four segments: Commercial/Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing & Servicing. It had $22.1B in total indebtedness and completed a... Read more

$16.90+5.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield11.29%(5y avg 9.40%)Payout202.11%
Stop $16.32Target $17.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$20.36+20.5%7 analysts
$17.71our TP
$16.90price
$20.36mean
$24

Sell if holding. At $16.90, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.2%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.9
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn60.5%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth21.8%
Beta1.07
Dividend11.29%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV36%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
3.8
Growth Rank
5.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 1129.0%
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.82Resistance $18.49

Price Targets

$16
$18
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STWD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $16.90, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $16.32. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STWD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.71 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.32. Stop-loss: $16.32.

What are the risks of investing in STWD?

Thin upside margin: 5.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is STWD overvalued or undervalued?

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STWD?

15 analysts cover STWD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $20.

What does STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S do?Starwood Property Trust is a diversified real estate finance REIT (externally managed by Starwood Capital Group) with...

Starwood Property Trust is a diversified real estate finance REIT (externally managed by Starwood Capital Group) with four segments: Commercial/Residential Lending, Infrastructure Lending, Property, and Investing & Servicing. It had $22.1B in total indebtedness and completed a $2.2B acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties in July 2025.

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