Annaly Capital Management has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and strong 49% year-over-year growth, but its 89% Agency MBS concentration and current price above analyst consensus make the near-term risk-reward unfavorable for adding new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Agency Mbs Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Wait for pullback to $17.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.16. Engine's entry $17.23 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields... Read more
Wait for pullback to $17.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.16. Engine's entry $17.23 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 80% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Annaly Capital Management Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Stock Down 7.0% but Still Ov - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Stock Down 7.0% but Still Ov - gurufocus.com — gurufocus.com negative
- NEWS Why Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Is Down Today - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS Why Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Is Down Today - quiverquant.com — quiverquant.com negative
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) Sets New 52-Week Low - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAgency MBS89%10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%| | 87%| | 59%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $17.23. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $18.16. Engine's entry $17.23 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 80% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Target $20.33 (+11.9%), stop $16.29 (−11.5%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $20.33 (+11.9% upside). Target $20.33 (+11.9%), stop $16.29 (−11.5%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $16.29.
Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 4.5 (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $23.
What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency...
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs, financing its portfolio with $81.9 billion of repurchase agreements outstanding at year-end 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1.