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Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%).

Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups: Agency MBS (89% of portfolio), Residential Credit (7%), and Mortgage Servicing Rights (4%). It earns income from the spread between asset yields and... Read more

$21.30+5.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield13.16%(5y avg 13.64%)Payout90.32%
Stop $20.66Target $22.55(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$24.25+13.8%10 analysts
$22.55our TP
$21.30price
$24.25mean
$25

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Annaly Capital Management Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 54%
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.9
P/E (Fwd)7.1
Mkt Cap$15.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn87.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth48.8%
Beta1.27
Dividend13.16%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioAgency MBS89%
    10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%' (percentage of portfolio and capital allocation at December 31, 2025)

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.5
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.8
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 18)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.18Resistance $23.01

Price Targets

$21
$23
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.0% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NLY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.30 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $20.66. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.55 (+5.8% upside). Prior stop was $20.66. Stop-loss: $20.66.

What are the risks of investing in NLY?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued?

Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.9 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NLY?

17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through...

Annaly Capital Management is an internally-managed mortgage REIT investing in residential mortgage finance through three groups: Agency MBS (89% of portfolio), Residential Credit (7%), and Mortgage Servicing Rights (4%). It earns income from the spread between asset yields and funding costs, with $81.9B in repurchase agreements outstanding at December 31, 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1. Annaly is headquartered in New York and manages 212 employees.

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