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NLYAnnaly Capital Management Inc.Hold6.4·$22.59+1.57%
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Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields... Read more

$22.59-1.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield13.49%(5y avg 13.69%)Payout90.32%
Stop $21.75Target $22.17(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$24.32+7.7%11 analysts
$22.17our TP
$22.59price
$24.32mean
$22
$25

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$16.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn87.4%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth48.8%
Beta1.25
Dividend13.49%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAgency MBS89%
    10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%| | 87%| | 59%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
52w Position
9.1
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.88Resistance $22.62

Price Targets

$22
$22
A.Upside-1.9%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $22.17 (-1.9%), stop $21.75 (−3.9%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.17 (-1.9% upside). Target $22.17 (-1.9%), stop $21.75 (−3.9%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $21.75.

What are the risks of investing in NLY?

Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NLY overvalued or undervalued?

Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NLY?

17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency...

Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs, financing its portfolio with $81.9 billion of repurchase agreements outstanding at year-end 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.)
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