Annaly Capital Management has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and strong 49% year-over-year growth, but its 89% Agency MBS concentration and current price above analyst consensus make the near-term risk-reward unfavorable for adding new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Agency Mbs Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026· older than 90 days
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%).
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 22, 2026Recent Developments — Annaly Capital Management Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Shrugs Off Q3 Earnings Book Value Drop - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Stock Down 7.0% but Still Ov - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Sep 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Stock Down 7.0% but Still Ov - gurufocus.com — gurufocus.com Sep 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Why Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Is Down Today - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Sep 30, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 22, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAgency MBS89%10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%| | 87%| | 59%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $18.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $18.03. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $18.39 reached (−2.9% from $18.93); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $18.03. Stop-loss: $18.03.
Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts rate NLY, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $21.
What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency...
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs, financing its portfolio with $81.9 billion of repurchase agreements outstanding at year-end 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1.