Value
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 2.6 |
| p ocf | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 7.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
STWD · Why this verdict
Why STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S (STWD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 60%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $120,137 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 8.6 |
| put call | 0.2 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 1.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.98
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 1126.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.73
Upside
+3.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Technical at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Catalyst at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.