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ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.Hold6.1·$6.68+1.21%
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Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional... Read more

$6.68+0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield18.18%(5y avg 20.43%)Payout151.58%
Stop $6.42Target $6.73(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$7.50+12.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 54%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.9
P/E (Fwd)4.8
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn83.8%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth
Beta1.55
Dividend18.18%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$8+12.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.42Resistance $6.87

Price Targets

$6
$7
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.68, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $6.73 (+0.7%), stop $6.42 (−4.0%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.73 (+0.7% upside). Target $6.73 (+0.7%), stop $6.42 (−4.0%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $6.42.

What are the risks of investing in ORC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ORC overvalued or undervalued?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.9 (forward 4.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ORC?

10 analysts cover ORC with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Orchid Island Capital, Inc. do?Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in...

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS, including interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for the United States federal income tax purposes. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to stockholders, if it annually distributes dividends equal to at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.

Related stocks: RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.) · EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) · STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) · MFA (MFA Financial, Inc.)
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