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Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.77 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional... Read more

$6.77+3.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield17.65%(5y avg 20.32%)Payout151.58%
Stop $6.53Target $6.97(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$7.50+10.8%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.77 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 52%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.2
P/E (Fwd)4.9
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn83.8%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth
Beta1.58
Dividend17.65%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C10.50bearish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.71Resistance $7.11

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.77 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $6.53. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.97 (+3.6% upside). Prior stop was $6.53. Stop-loss: $6.53.

What are the risks of investing in ORC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ORC overvalued or undervalued?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.2 (forward 4.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ORC?

10 analysts cover ORC with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Orchid Island Capital, Inc. do?Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in...

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS, including interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for the United States federal income tax purposes. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to stockholders, if it annually distributes dividends equal to at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.

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