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Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional... Read more

$7.08+0.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
Stop $6.70Target $7.11(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$7.50+5.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 51%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn83.8%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth
Beta1.63
Dividend17.07%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV36%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $6.53Resistance $7.26

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.0% upside)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $7.11 (+0.4%), stop $6.70 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.11 (+0.4% upside). Target $7.11 (+0.4%), stop $6.70 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $6.70.

What are the risks of investing in ORC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ORC overvalued or undervalued?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ORC?

10 analysts cover ORC with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Orchid Island Capital, Inc. do?Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in...

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS, including interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for the United States federal income tax purposes. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to stockholders, if it annually distributes dividends equal to at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.

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