Starling Oncology combines industry-leading growth with an attractive valuation and meaningful analyst upside, but a mixed earnings track record and a quality score well below the platform's floor keep the setup speculative and overbought.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Growth And Value→Stable
- Analyst Upside To Target↑Improving
- Mixed Earnings Track Record→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Starling Oncology, Inc. (STLN) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.93: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
The Oncology Institute operates value-based oncology care across 65 affiliated clinics and independent provider networks in 17 markets across five states, mainly California, managing about 2.0 million patients under value-based agreements. The company earns revenue via... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.93: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About Starling Oncology, Inc.
About Starling Oncology, Inc.
The Oncology Institute managed approximately 2.0 million patients under value-based agreements as of December 31, 2025, through 65 affiliated TOI PC clinics staffed by 116 providers, 81 independently-owned contracted clinics, and a network of 198 independent providers across 17 markets in five states. More than 46% of 2025 revenue came from value-based contracts, including 16% from capitation agreements, and the vast majority of TOI PC members under capitation were California residents.
The Oncology Institute bills fee-for-service care under CPT codes for physician and infusion services and on a cost-plus basis for drugs, generally relying on outside physician referrals, while its value-based contracts pay a fixed per-member, per-month capitation fee or share gains and losses against a target cost, letting the company profit when actual oncology costs come in under that target. Its specialty and retail pharmacies, operating in all five states, bill patients' pharmacy benefit managers on a wholesale-acquisition-cost-minus basis for oral, IV, and injectable medications, and its TOI Clinical Research subsidiary bills pharmaceutical companies and contract research organizations for enrolled-patient trial procedures. Contracted payors include affiliates of Anthem, CareMore Health, Heritage Provider Network, and Optum Care, alongside newer full-delegation deals in which the company also takes on utilization management, network construction, and claims adjudication. The company competes for patients and payor contracts against non-traditional entrants such as Oscar and Bright HealthCare and primary-care risk models including Agilon Health and ChenMed.
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The economics behind that value-based mix carry their own binary risk: under capitation, the TOI PCs are financially responsible for the specified medical oncology and related expenses of assigned patients regardless of how much care they actually need, so if a population turns out sicker or costlier than priced in, the TOI PCs bear the loss with no ability to raise the fixed monthly fee mid-contract. Layered on top is a regulatory sunset — CMS's pandemic-era telehealth flexibilities, which let Medicare patients receive care at home without the usual site restrictions, remain in effect only through December 31, 2027, and the 10-K notes it is unclear how long these changes will remain in place.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From Starling Oncology, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-06Recent Developments — Starling Oncology, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 12 Health Care Stocks Moving In Friday's After-Market Session — benzinga Aug 28, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-09-06T16:02:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'the vast majority of the TOI PC members under capitation agreements were residents of California'
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of health insurance, IPA, and medical group payors10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our consolidated Patient Services revenue is derived from a limited number of health insurance, Independent Practice Associations, or IPAs and medical group companies.'
- MEDIUMCustomerpharmacy benefit management companies10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of sales are from prescription drug sales reimbursed by a number of pharmacy benefit management companies with which TOI PCs contract.'
- MEDIUMProductvalue-based contracts46%10-K Item 1: 'we generated more than 46% of our revenue from patients who are covered by value-based contracts'
- LOWProductcapitation contracts16%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 16% of our revenue for 2025 was derived from fixed fees paid by payors under capitation agreements with the TOI PCs.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.93: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 2.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.59. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.83 (+32.0% upside). Prior stop was $5.59. Stop-loss: $5.59.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
Starling Oncology, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover STLN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $9.
What does Starling Oncology, Inc. do?The Oncology Institute operates value-based oncology care across 65 affiliated clinics and independent provider...
The Oncology Institute operates value-based oncology care across 65 affiliated clinics and independent provider networks in 17 markets across five states, mainly California, managing about 2.0 million patients under value-based agreements. The company earns revenue via fee-for-service billing and value-based contracts with payors including Anthem, CareMore Health, and Optum Care; over 46% of 2025 revenue came from value-based agreements.