Value
9.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
STLN · Why this verdict
Why Starling Oncology (STLN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Starling Oncology combines industry-leading growth with an attractive valuation and meaningful analyst upside, but a mixed earnings track record and a quality score well below the platform's floor keep the setup speculative and overbought.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Starling Oncology combines 35% YoY revenue growth (flagged as an industry growth leader) with a valuation the engine calls attractively valued. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY while the value-component score holds at or above 7.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh growth for an oncology-focused medical care facility operator can be volatile quarter to quarter, and the light 5-analyst coverage means the growth trend is thinly verified. | ||
Analyst price targets imply 39% upside from the current price, a sentiment tailwind identified in the sentiment component notes. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst upside should stay above 20% (currently 39%) as coverage is refreshed over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith only 5 analysts covering the name, a single analyst revision could swing the average target and upside estimate substantially. | ||
Starling Oncology has split evenly between beats and misses over the last 4 quarters (2 beats, 2 misses), and the catalyst notes flag earnings concerns for 2 of the last 4 quarters. Catalyst breakdown | The beat count should rise above 2 of the trailing 4 quarters at the next earnings report (2026-11-09) to establish a clearer positive trend. | →Stable |
| CounterA 50/50 beat/miss split with a positive average surprise can still represent underlying stability rather than deterioration. | ||
Quality sits well below the platform's 4.0 floor (2.1) and the stock is technically overbought (RSI 72) with falling on-balance volume, a combination the engine flags as a reason to exit. Bear case | The quality score should rise above 4.0 and OBV should turn positive over the next 12 months for the exit signal to clear. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIn a high-growth healthcare name, overbought readings can persist for extended periods without a meaningful pullback if growth continues to surprise positively. | ||
Starling Oncology combines 35% YoY revenue growth (flagged as an industry growth leader) with a valuation the engine calls attractively valued.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY while the value-component score holds at or above 7.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh growth for an oncology-focused medical care facility operator can be volatile quarter to quarter, and the light 5-analyst coverage means the growth trend is thinly verified.
Analyst price targets imply 39% upside from the current price, a sentiment tailwind identified in the sentiment component notes.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst upside should stay above 20% (currently 39%) as coverage is refreshed over the next 12 months.
CounterWith only 5 analysts covering the name, a single analyst revision could swing the average target and upside estimate substantially.
Starling Oncology has split evenly between beats and misses over the last 4 quarters (2 beats, 2 misses), and the catalyst notes flag earnings concerns for 2 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat count should rise above 2 of the trailing 4 quarters at the next earnings report (2026-11-09) to establish a clearer positive trend.
CounterA 50/50 beat/miss split with a positive average surprise can still represent underlying stability rather than deterioration.
Quality sits well below the platform's 4.0 floor (2.1) and the stock is technically overbought (RSI 72) with falling on-balance volume, a combination the engine flags as a reason to exit.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The quality score should rise above 4.0 and OBV should turn positive over the next 12 months for the exit signal to clear.
CounterIn a high-growth healthcare name, overbought readings can persist for extended periods without a meaningful pullback if growth continues to surprise positively.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 52%
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,946,310 (0.322% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 94%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:0.32%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.71
Upside
+32.0%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 0.32%=HEAVY outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.71.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.2, and Technical at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Insider at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Growth And Value
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY in the next reported quarter, down from the current 35%.
- P2Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst upside compresses below 15%, down from the current 39%.
- P3Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifBeat count stays below 3 of the trailing 4 reported quarters at the November 9, 2026 earnings report.
- P4Quality Below Floor And Overbought Momentum
Trip ifQuality score drops below 1.5, further from the 4.0 floor, versus the current 2.1.