Value
8.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
STLN · Why this verdict
Why Starling Oncology (STLN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Starling Oncology is growing revenue 35% YoY with 25.2% upside to the analyst target, but it is still unprofitable, has a quality score below the floor, concentrated California exposure and extreme implied volatility ahead of earnings.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Gross, operating and net margins all score 0 and quality is 2.1/10, below the 4.0 floor, with EPS of -$0.08 in the latest quarter. Components | Quarterly loss per share should narrow toward -$0.03 or better over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLosses have narrowed from -$0.19 in 2024, so scale may eventually drive breakeven. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose from $119.8M to $161.3M year over year, 35% growth, with 9 consecutive quarterly increases since 2023. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach the $168.7M next-quarter estimate and stay above $160M. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is low (0.33) and growth has not yet produced positive operating margins. | ||
The analyst target of $8.18 is 25.2% above the $6.53 price, giving a reward-to-risk of 2.19 against 11.5% downside. Analyst target | Price should move toward $8.18 if the company narrows losses. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light and the position is rated AVOID, so the target may not be reliable. | ||
Concentration risk includes 1 HIGH and 3 MED items, including California geographic exposure, and implied volatility is extreme at 363%. Bear case | No single-region event should cut revenue growth below 25% YoY. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMany healthcare facility operators are regional, so California concentration is common but still exposes the company to state-level reimbursement changes. | ||
EPS has been 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, with an earnings report due in 4 days on 2026-11-05. Last 4 quarters | EPS should come in at or above the estimate in the next report. | →Stable |
| CounterMost reports across the last three years were misses, so a miss is likely to recur. | ||
Gross, operating and net margins all score 0 and quality is 2.1/10, below the 4.0 floor, with EPS of -$0.08 in the latest quarter.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Quarterly loss per share should narrow toward -$0.03 or better over 12 months.
CounterLosses have narrowed from -$0.19 in 2024, so scale may eventually drive breakeven.
Quarterly revenue rose from $119.8M to $161.3M year over year, 35% growth, with 9 consecutive quarterly increases since 2023.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $168.7M next-quarter estimate and stay above $160M.
CounterGrowth confidence is low (0.33) and growth has not yet produced positive operating margins.
The analyst target of $8.18 is 25.2% above the $6.53 price, giving a reward-to-risk of 2.19 against 11.5% downside.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward $8.18 if the company narrows losses.
CounterCoverage is light and the position is rated AVOID, so the target may not be reliable.
Concentration risk includes 1 HIGH and 3 MED items, including California geographic exposure, and implied volatility is extreme at 363%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No single-region event should cut revenue growth below 25% YoY.
CounterMany healthcare facility operators are regional, so California concentration is common but still exposes the company to state-level reimbursement changes.
EPS has been 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, with an earnings report due in 4 days on 2026-11-05.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above the estimate in the next report.
CounterMost reports across the last three years were misses, so a miss is likely to recur.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.88
- ▸High IV: 153%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.03
Upside
+22.1%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 0d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.03.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Persistent Unprofitability
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share widens beyond -$0.15.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $6.07 stop level.
- P4Concentration And Volatility Risk
Trip ifAny single state accounts for more than 80% of revenue.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.