Value
9.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
STLN · Why this verdict
Why Starling Oncology (STLN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Starling Oncology is a fast-growing small-cap care provider with a clear analyst-target gap, but unprofitable operations, a patchy earnings record and weakening momentum leave quality below the engine's floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.1, well below the 4.0 floor, with gross, operating and net margins and return on assets all scored at zero. Quality | Margins turn positive and quality clears the 4.0 floor within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterScaling revenue at this rate may eventually lift margins through operating leverage, making today's score too harsh. | ||
Revenue grew 35% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from 119.8M in mid-2025 to 161.3M in the June 2026 quarter, an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue reaches the 168.7M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing above 25% YoY over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth has not produced profit, and a high-growth multiple can compress fast if expansion slows. | ||
Analyst upside of 23.3% against 11.4% downside to the stop gives an asymmetry ratio of 2.05, above the 1.5 bar. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the 7.83 target while holding above the 5.91 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum of 3.2 is under the 4.5 bar with falling on-balance volume, and implied volatility of 219% makes the stop easy to hit. | ||
Earnings are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, including a miss on 2026-08-06 (actual -0.08 vs -0.06 estimate), and a longer history dominated by misses. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly per-share loss narrows toward -0.02 with beats in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates for a small, unprofitable name are noisy, and repeated misses indicate weak forecasting visibility. | ||
Quality is 2.1, well below the 4.0 floor, with gross, operating and net margins and return on assets all scored at zero.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Margins turn positive and quality clears the 4.0 floor within 12 months.
CounterScaling revenue at this rate may eventually lift margins through operating leverage, making today's score too harsh.
Revenue grew 35% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from 119.8M in mid-2025 to 161.3M in the June 2026 quarter, an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue reaches the 168.7M next-quarter estimate and keeps growing above 25% YoY over 12 months.
CounterGrowth has not produced profit, and a high-growth multiple can compress fast if expansion slows.
Analyst upside of 23.3% against 11.4% downside to the stop gives an asymmetry ratio of 2.05, above the 1.5 bar.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the 7.83 target while holding above the 5.91 stop.
CounterMomentum of 3.2 is under the 4.5 bar with falling on-balance volume, and implied volatility of 219% makes the stop easy to hit.
Earnings are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, including a miss on 2026-08-06 (actual -0.08 vs -0.06 estimate), and a longer history dominated by misses.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly per-share loss narrows toward -0.02 with beats in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterEstimates for a small, unprofitable name are noisy, and repeated misses indicate weak forecasting visibility.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 6.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.38
Upside
+27.2%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.38.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.2, and Sentiment at 8.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Momentum at 4.6, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Unprofitable Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Gap Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice falls below the 5.91 stop-loss, more than 7% under the current 6.35.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.