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Chemed Corp (CHE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $441.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (>95% of VITAS net patient service revenue).

Chemed operates two distinct businesses: VITAS Healthcare (one of the nation's largest hospice providers, serving terminally ill patients via Medicare/Medicaid per diem reimbursement) and Roto-Rooter (plumbing and drain cleaning services for residential and commercial customers... Read more

$441.62+0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#26 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.94%
IncomeYield0.52%(5y avg 0.33%)Payout12.55%sustainable
Stop $419.36Target $444.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$446.50+1.1%4 analysts
$444.54our TP
$441.62price
$446.50mean
$400
$500

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $441.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (>95% of VITAS net patient service revenue). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Chemed Corp

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (>95% of VITAS net patient service revenue)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.1
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$5.9B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn10.2%
ROE25.6%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.54
Dividend0.52%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV34%normal
Max Pain$250-43.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMedicare and Medicaid (>95% of VITAS net patient service revenue)
    10-K Item 1A: 'In excess of 95% of VITAS’ net patient service revenue consists of payments from the Medicare and Medicaid programs'
  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida (significant portion of VITAS operations)
    10-K Item 1: 'A significant portion of our VITAS business is operated in the state of Florida'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.9
Revenue Growth
2.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
1.8
52w Position
4.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
8.4
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $371.00Resistance $453.61

Price Targets

$419
$445
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.1% upside)
! Red flag in news: 'fraud'
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $441.62 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (>95% of VITAS net patient service revenue). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $419.36. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $444.54 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $419.36. Stop-loss: $419.36.

What are the risks of investing in CHE?

Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (>95% of VITAS net patient service revenue); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CHE overvalued or undervalued?

Chemed Corp trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHE?

8 analysts cover CHE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $447.

What does Chemed Corp do?Chemed operates two distinct businesses: VITAS Healthcare (one of the nation's largest hospice providers, serving...

Chemed operates two distinct businesses: VITAS Healthcare (one of the nation's largest hospice providers, serving terminally ill patients via Medicare/Medicaid per diem reimbursement) and Roto-Rooter (plumbing and drain cleaning services for residential and commercial customers nationwide). Over 95% of VITAS revenue comes from Medicare and Medicaid.

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