Aveanna Healthcare has beaten earnings four quarters in a row and trades at a forward P/E of 14.5x with 199% ROE, but price is already at the analyst target, insiders have sold an extreme 19.4% of market cap and payer concentration is high.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Target Already Reached→Stable
- Extreme Insider Selling→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 19, 2026
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.25 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare, Medicaid and private health insurance payers.
Aveanna Healthcare is the largest provider of private duty nursing (PDN) services in the United States, operating through three segments: Private Duty Services, Home Health & Hospice, and Medical Solutions. The company has completed and integrated eighteen acquisitions since... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.25 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare, Medicaid and private health insurance payers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 22, 2026
Recent Developments — Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Announces Upcoming Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Release — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Janus Henderson Group PLC Lowers Stock Position in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. $AVAH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Will Lower PDS Margin Affect Aveanna Healthcare's Q2 Earnings? - TradingView — TradingView Aug 10, 2026 negative
- NEWS Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) Board Director Erica Schwartz Resigns - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Aug 9, 2026 negative
- NEWS Aveanna Healthcare Director Resigns Following CDC Appointment - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Aug 8, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 22, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-07T11:32:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerMedicare, Medicaid and private health insurance payers10-K Item 1A: 'Third-party payers including Medicare, Medicaid and private health insurance payers provide substantially all funding for our home health and hospice services'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $13.25 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare, Medicaid and private health insurance payers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.32. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $13.09 reached (−1.2% from $13.25); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $12.32. Stop-loss: $12.32.
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare, Medicaid and private health insurance payers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts rate AVAH, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $15.
What does Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc do?Aveanna Healthcare is the largest provider of private duty nursing (PDN) services in the United States, operating...
Aveanna Healthcare is the largest provider of private duty nursing (PDN) services in the United States, operating through three segments: Private Duty Services, Home Health & Hospice, and Medical Solutions. The company has completed and integrated eighteen acquisitions since 2017 to build a national home-care platform, with Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers funding substantially all of its home health and hospice revenue.