Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the ASTH stock price target?

Take-profit $34.67 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $31.95.

Q: What are the risks of investing in ASTH?

Target reached (-6.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.5%), High leverage (D/E 16.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.72% of cap); Target reached (-6.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Q: Is ASTH overvalued or undervalued?

Astrana Health Inc. trades at a P/E of 76.1 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about ASTH?

17 analysts cover ASTH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $37.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.21: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

$34.21+0.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 27 Medical Care Facilities

Stop $31.95Target $34.67(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1

Analyst target$36.89+7.8%9 analysts

$34.67our TP

$34.21price

$36.89mean

$26

$50

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-6.6% upside)

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.5%), High leverage (D/E 16.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.72% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)76.1

P/E (Fwd)10.9

Mkt Cap$2.0B

EV/EBITDA15.0

Profit Mgn0.7%

ROE4.5%

Rev Growth42.9%

Beta0.77

DividendNone

Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish

IV102%elevated

Max Pain$10-70.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.515%0.97

Quality3.515%0.53

Growth10.015%1.50

Momentum6.610%0.66

Sentiment6.610%0.66

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.810%0.38

Technical Setup4.15%0.20

Risk Profile4.55%0.23

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)6.00

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.4

Operating Margin

0.7

Roe

1.5

Roa

2.3

Moat

5.0

Current Ratio

5.2

Piotroski F

6.7

Fcf Quality

10.0

Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

1.6

Value Rank

4.3

Growth Rank

9.2

Industry growth leader

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

85 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.75Resistance $35.38

Price Targets

$32

$35

A.Upside+1.3%

A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.6% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.5%), High leverage (D/E 16.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.72% of cap)

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ASTH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.21: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 85. Prior stop was $31.95. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASTH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.67 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $31.95. Stop-loss: $31.95.

What are the risks of investing in ASTH?

Target reached (-6.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin -2.5%), High leverage (D/E 16.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.72% of cap).

Is ASTH overvalued or undervalued?

Astrana Health Inc. trades at a P/E of 76.1 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASTH?

17 analysts cover ASTH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Astrana Health Inc. do?Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company...

Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. Its physician network includes primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.