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Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. At $25.53, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

Concentra Group Holdings is the largest US occupational health services provider by locations, with 628 occupational health centers in 41 states and 411 onsite health clinics at employer worksites. Revenue was $2.16B in 2025, with ~61% from workers' compensation insurance... Read more

$25.53+6.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.30%
IncomeYield0.96%Payout17.99%sustainable
Stop $23.74Target $27.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$31.29+22.5%7 analysts
$27.22our TP
$25.53price
$31.29mean
$36

Sell if holding. At $25.53, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Concentra Group Holdings Parent

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.6%
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.8
P/E (Fwd)15.2
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn8.0%
ROE47.0%
Rev Growth13.7%
Beta
Dividend0.96%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.67bearish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.90Resistance $26.59

Price Targets

$24
$27
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $25.53, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.74. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.22 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $23.74. Stop-loss: $23.74.

What are the risks of investing in CON?

Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.7): -1.5.

Is CON overvalued or undervalued?

Concentra Group Holdings Parent trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CON?

11 analysts cover CON with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Concentra Group Holdings Parent do?Concentra Group Holdings is the largest US occupational health services provider by locations, with 628 occupational...

Concentra Group Holdings is the largest US occupational health services provider by locations, with 628 occupational health centers in 41 states and 411 onsite health clinics at employer worksites. Revenue was $2.16B in 2025, with ~61% from workers' compensation insurance carriers/payors and ~38% from direct employer services.

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