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Concentra Group Holdings Parent (CON) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $22.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Concentra is the largest U.S. occupational health services provider by locations, operating 628 stand-alone occupational health centers and 411 onsite health clinics serving approximately 53,000 patients per business day. Revenue was $2,163.4M in 2025, approximately 93% from... Read more

$22.58+11.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $21.32Target $25.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$29.00+28.4%7 analysts
$25.23our TP
$22.58price
$29.00mean
$31

Sell if holding. At $22.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn7.7%
ROE48.1%
Rev Growth15.9%
Beta
Dividend1.12%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV68%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomersignificant employer customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'If we have adverse changes to our relationships with our significant employer customers, third-party payors, workers' compensation provider networks or employer services networks, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Dr. John Anderson (EVP & Chief Medical Officer) notified retirement effective December 31, 2026. Company expects Consulting Agreement with Dr. Anderson for transition. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.54Resistance $23.26

Price Targets

$21
$25
A.Upside+11.7%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $22.58, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.32. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.23 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $21.32. Stop-loss: $21.32.

What are the risks of investing in CON?

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is CON overvalued or undervalued?

Concentra Group Holdings Parent trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CON?

11 analysts cover CON with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Concentra Group Holdings Parent do?Concentra is the largest U.S. occupational health services provider by locations, operating 628 stand-alone...

Concentra is the largest U.S. occupational health services provider by locations, operating 628 stand-alone occupational health centers and 411 onsite health clinics serving approximately 53,000 patients per business day. Revenue was $2,163.4M in 2025, approximately 93% from occupational health centers, serving employers through workers' compensation, employer services, and consumer health.

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