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Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $136.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS public cloud.

Snowflake provides a cloud-native AI Data Cloud platform enabling customers to consolidate data, run analytics, build applications, and share data across AWS, Azure, and GCP via 53 regional deployments. Revenue is consumption-based generating $4.7B in fiscal 2026. The platform... Read more

$136.76+56.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#71 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $127.30Target $214.12(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$232.74+70.2%47 analysts
$214.12our TP
$136.76price
$232.74mean
$500

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $136.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS public cloud. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 56%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS public cloud
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)58.1
Mkt Cap$48.8B
EV/EBITDA-36.9
Profit Mgn-28.4%
ROE-53.9%
Rev Growth30.1%
Beta1.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts58

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV73%elevated
Max Pain$75-45.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierAWS public cloud
    10-K Item 1A: 'a substantial majority of our business is run on the AWS public cloud'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-02Item 5.02LOW
    Jeremy Burton resigned from Snowflake's Board effective Jan 30, 2026, in connection with Snowflake's acquisition of Observe, Inc., where he served as CEO. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
8.6
Industry growth leader

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.7
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $118.30Resistance $157.84

Price Targets

$127
$214
A.Upside+56.6%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SNOW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $136.76 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS public cloud. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Prior stop was $127.30. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SNOW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $214.12 (+56.4% upside). Prior stop was $127.30. Stop-loss: $127.30.

What are the risks of investing in SNOW?

Concentration risk — Supplier: AWS public cloud; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is SNOW overvalued or undervalued?

Snowflake Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 58.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SNOW?

58 analysts cover SNOW with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $233.

What does Snowflake Inc. do?Snowflake provides a cloud-native AI Data Cloud platform enabling customers to consolidate data, run analytics, build...

Snowflake provides a cloud-native AI Data Cloud platform enabling customers to consolidate data, run analytics, build applications, and share data across AWS, Azure, and GCP via 53 regional deployments. Revenue is consumption-based generating $4.7B in fiscal 2026. The platform benefits from network effects as more customers join, increasing the value of shared data products.

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