SkyWest has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times, and offers a 41% margin of safety — but heavy reliance on United and Delta for revenue creates a structural concentration risk that constrains upside.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Track Record↑Improving
- Deep Value At 7x Earnings↑Improving
- Customer Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026· older than 90 days
SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $77.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
SkyWest, Inc. operates the largest regional airline operations in the United States through SkyWest Airlines, conducting approximately 2,260 daily departures under United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle, and Alaska Airlines code-share agreements. Revenue is earned... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $77.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 29, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
About SkyWest, Inc.
About SkyWest, Inc.
SkyWest, Inc. completed 863,513 departures and 1,481,723 block hours in fiscal 2025 — up from 766,742 departures in 2024 as captain availability normalized after elevated attrition in 2022 and 2023. The company deployed 487 aircraft in scheduled service under United, Delta, American, and Alaska code-share agreements as of December 31, 2025, operating at hubs including Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle. SkyWest employed 15,775 people, with 89.6% represented by in-house labor associations.
Approximately 84% of SkyWest's flying agreements revenue in 2025 came from capacity purchase agreements under which United, Delta, American, and Alaska pay fixed rates per departure, flight hour, and block hour while bearing fuel price risk and controlling scheduling, ticketing, and seat inventories. The remaining ~16% derived from prorate agreements and SWC charter operations, where SkyWest retained scheduling control and bore fuel costs directly. United accounted for 216 of the 487 aircraft in scheduled service, Delta for 137, American for 92, and Alaska for 42, with 353 of the 487 total aircraft flying under United or Delta agreements. SkyWest Leasing contributed revenue by financing E175 aircraft and leasing 40 CRJ700s and 5 CRJ900s to third parties. SWC, the on-demand charter subsidiary operating since 2023, received DOT commuter air carrier authorization in September 2025. Eight new E175s for United and one for Alaska are scheduled for delivery in 2026, with 16 more for Delta in 2027 and 2028.
Show full overview
The filing's most specific risk quantification concerns United and Delta: SkyWest disclosed that 353 of its 487 scheduled-service aircraft operated under United or Delta agreements as of December 31, 2025, and warned that termination of either relationship would likely have a material adverse effect on financial condition, operating revenues, and net income without an immediate replacement revenue source. Scope limitations embedded in each major airline's own labor agreements cap the seat count and aircraft type eligible for code-share use, constraining SkyWest's ability to grow outside the four-partner system or reallocate aircraft to alternative arrangements if one agreement were terminated.
See also: Industrials · Airlines
From SkyWest, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — SkyWest, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS SkyWest (SKYW) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (SKYW) SkyWest Posts Q3 EPS $3.08, vs. FactSet Est of $3.07 - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS SKYWEST ($SKYW) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS SkyWest: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS SkyWest Q3 2026 Earnings Call Is Live - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerUnited and Delta10-K Item 1A: '353 out of our total 487 aircraft in scheduled service were operating under a capacity purchase agreement or a prorate agreement with either United or Delta'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $77.70 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 29, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $75.35. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $102.51 (+31.9% upside). Prior stop was $75.35. Stop-loss: $75.35.
Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
SkyWest, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate SKYW, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $118.
What does SkyWest, Inc. do?SkyWest, Inc. operates the largest regional airline operations in the United States through SkyWest Airlines,...
SkyWest, Inc. operates the largest regional airline operations in the United States through SkyWest Airlines, conducting approximately 2,260 daily departures under United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle, and Alaska Airlines code-share agreements. Revenue is earned primarily under fixed-fee capacity purchase agreements (approximately 84% of flying agreements revenue in 2025), covering a 487-aircraft in-service fleet with partners bearing fuel price risk.