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SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $78.63 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta combined; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

SkyWest operates the largest regional airline in the U.S. with 487 aircraft under contract as United Express (216), Delta Connection (137), American Eagle (92), and Alaska Airlines (42), under predominantly fixed-fee capacity purchase agreements. Revenue is mostly from fixed... Read more

$78.63+34.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.59%
Stop $75.95Target $105.70(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$121.50+54.5%6 analysts
$105.70our TP
$78.63price
$121.50mean
$150

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $78.63 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta combined; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — SkyWest, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 48%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta combined
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.8
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA5.3
Profit Mgn10.4%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth6.8%
Beta1.48
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$65-17.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerUnited and Delta combined
    10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, 353 out of our total 487 aircraft in scheduled service were operating under a capacity purchase agreement or a prorate agreement with either United or Delta'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $78.30Resistance $94.33

Price Targets

$76
$106
A.Upside+34.4%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SKYW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $78.63 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta combined; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $75.95. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the SKYW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.70 (+34.4% upside). Prior stop was $75.95. Stop-loss: $75.95.

What are the risks of investing in SKYW?

Concentration risk — Customer: United and Delta combined; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is SKYW overvalued or undervalued?

SkyWest, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.8 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SKYW?

12 analysts cover SKYW with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $122.

What does SkyWest, Inc. do?SkyWest operates the largest regional airline in the U.S. with 487 aircraft under contract as United Express (216),...

SkyWest operates the largest regional airline in the U.S. with 487 aircraft under contract as United Express (216), Delta Connection (137), American Eagle (92), and Alaska Airlines (42), under predominantly fixed-fee capacity purchase agreements. Revenue is mostly from fixed rates per departure/block hour with fuel costs borne by major airline partners; United and Delta together account for 353 of 487 contracted aircraft.

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