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Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $134.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 125 aircraft. The company was... Read more

$134.89+9.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-3.41%
IncomeYield5.34%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout38.11%sustainable
Stop $125.39Target $147.72(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$164.13+21.7%15 analysts
$147.72our TP
$134.89price
$164.13mean
$126
$190

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $134.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Copa Holdings, S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 50%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.6%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA5.4
Profit Mgn18.8%
ROE26.4%
Rev Growth17.0%
Beta0.92
Dividend5.34%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV50%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
7.4
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $110.95Resistance $136.52

Price Targets

$125
$148
A.Upside+9.5%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CPA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $134.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $147.72 (+9.5%), stop $125.39 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CPA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.72 (+9.6% upside). Target $147.72 (+9.5%), stop $125.39 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $125.39.

What are the risks of investing in CPA?

Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is CPA overvalued or undervalued?

Copa Holdings, S.A. trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CPA?

18 analysts cover CPA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $164.

What does Copa Holdings, S.A. do?Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services...

Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 125 aircraft. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama.

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