Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.51
- ▸Attractively valued
SKYW · Why this verdict
Why SkyWest (SKYW) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SkyWest has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 11%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times, and offers a 41% margin of safety — but heavy reliance on United and Delta for revenue creates a structural concentration risk that constrains upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SkyWest has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 11.4%, suggesting management's operational execution is consistently ahead of market expectations. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 4 of the next 4 reported quarters, with average surprise remaining above 8% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one quarterly miss came at a -1.13% shortfall, and forward guidance is unknown, leaving no visibility into whether the beat pattern can be sustained if fuel costs or pilot wage negotiations spike. | ||
SkyWest trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 2.32, and analyst consensus implies 32% upside to a price target of approximately $122, suggesting the market is significantly undervaluing the company's earnings power. Valuation breakdown | The stock price rises above $110 within 12 months, reflecting at least partial re-rating toward analyst consensus target. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional airline economics are structurally margin-thin, and low multiples may be permanently justified given high sensitivity to jet fuel prices, labor costs, and major carrier capacity decisions. | ||
Revenue is concentrated in United and Delta, creating a structural dependency where any capacity reduction, contract renegotiation, or financial stress at either major carrier could materially impair SkyWest's revenue base. Bear case | Major airline partners maintain or grow their regional flying agreements, with no public announcements of capacity cuts to SkyWest routes over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSkyWest's dedicated fleet and crew relationships make it a preferred regional partner, and switching costs for the majors are high, providing some de facto revenue stability. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average declining at 4.4% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend, though the MACD is improving and RSI has reached 61, suggesting early momentum recovery may be underway. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average and holds that level for at least 30 days within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 61 while still below the 200-day moving average is a classic bear rally pattern; without the moving average recovery the downtrend remains intact and the stock could retest lower lows. | ||
SkyWest has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 11.4%, suggesting management's operational execution is consistently ahead of market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 4 of the next 4 reported quarters, with average surprise remaining above 8% over 12 months.
CounterThe one quarterly miss came at a -1.13% shortfall, and forward guidance is unknown, leaving no visibility into whether the beat pattern can be sustained if fuel costs or pilot wage negotiations spike.
SkyWest trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 2.32, and analyst consensus implies 32% upside to a price target of approximately $122, suggesting the market is significantly undervaluing the company's earnings power.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $110 within 12 months, reflecting at least partial re-rating toward analyst consensus target.
CounterRegional airline economics are structurally margin-thin, and low multiples may be permanently justified given high sensitivity to jet fuel prices, labor costs, and major carrier capacity decisions.
Revenue is concentrated in United and Delta, creating a structural dependency where any capacity reduction, contract renegotiation, or financial stress at either major carrier could materially impair SkyWest's revenue base.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Major airline partners maintain or grow their regional flying agreements, with no public announcements of capacity cuts to SkyWest routes over 12 months.
CounterSkyWest's dedicated fleet and crew relationships make it a preferred regional partner, and switching costs for the majors are high, providing some de facto revenue stability.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the moving average declining at 4.4% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend, though the MACD is improving and RSI has reached 61, suggesting early momentum recovery may be underway.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average and holds that level for at least 30 days within 12 months.
CounterRSI at 61 while still below the 200-day moving average is a classic bear rally pattern; without the moving average recovery the downtrend remains intact and the stock could retest lower lows.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Current ratio | 2.5 |
| FCF quality | 1.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 12% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 4.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Share-count fallback (no $ value): net +0 shares
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.95
Upside
+7.7%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.46>1.3, MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Insider at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Technical at 3.7, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.95 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Deep Value At 7x Earnings
Trip ifStock price drops below $78, more than 15% below the current price of $91.96.
- P3Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifEither United or Delta announces capacity reductions greater than 10% for SkyWest routes in any 12-month period.
- P4Death Cross Momentum Recovery
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope remains below 0% for more than 6 consecutive months.