Grupo Aeromexico offers a significant margin of safety of 95% and 37% upside to the analyst price target at a 5.3-to-1 reward/risk ratio, with strong free cash flow conversion of 144% of net income; the central risk is a widely anticipated ~92% earnings decline as the airline cycle reverses from its current peak, which, if it materializes, would sharply compress the apparent cheapness of the current valuation.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Margin Of Safety Analyst Upside→Stable
- Cyclical Earnings Reversal Risk↓Deteriorating
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V (AERO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.04 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.04 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V
Latest news
- NEWS Earnings Preview: AERO to Report Financial Results Post-market on July 13 - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS Grupo Aeromexico Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Jefferies raises General Dynamics stock price target on aero strength - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Jefferies Initiates on Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO) at Hold and Points to Premium Fares as Its Strongest Bull Case - Yahoo Fi — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Grupo Aeromexico (NYSE:AERO) Cut to Hold at Wall Street Zen - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.04 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $14.92. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $23.34 (+45.5% upside). Prior stop was $14.92. Stop-loss: $14.92.
Earnings expected to decline ~86% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V trades at a P/E of 1.2 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover AERO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $27.
What does Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V do?Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and...
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services. Its network of destinations includes Mexico, the United States, South America, Central America, the Caribbean, Canada, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.