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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V (AERO) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~92% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management,... Read more

$14.80+62.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield23.62%
Stop $14.01Target $24.01(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.5:1
Analyst target$27.60+86.5%9 analysts
$24.01our TP
$14.80price
$27.60mean
$30

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~92% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 96%
Analyst upside: 62%
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~92% (cyclical peak)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)0.7
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA22.0
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.5
Ma Position
2.5
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
5.8
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 6.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $14.44Resistance $16.79

Price Targets

$14
$24
A.Upside+62.2%
A.R:R6.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 8x vs trail 1x (12.2x)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for AERO.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AERO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.80 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~92% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $14.01. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AERO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.01 (+62.2% upside). Prior stop was $14.01. Stop-loss: $14.01.

What are the risks of investing in AERO?

Earnings expected to decline ~92% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is AERO overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V trades at a P/E of 0.7 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AERO?

15 analysts cover AERO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V do?Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and...

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services. Its network of destinations includes Mexico, the United States, South America, Central America, the Caribbean, Canada, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

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