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American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.38: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

American Airlines Group operates a major network air carrier with hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington D.C., serving approximately 224 million passengers in 2025 with 139,100 employees. Revenue comes... Read more

$12.38+8.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#7 of 12 Airlines
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.58%
Stop $11.51Target $13.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$14.86+20.0%24 analysts
$13.37our TP
$12.38price
$14.86mean
$10
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.38: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — American Airlines Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.15% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.7
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$5-59.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Mary N. Dillon elected to AAG's Board of Directors on March 24, 2026, to serve on the Compensation Committee and Corporate Governance and Public Responsibility Committee. No reason cited; compensated as other non-employee directors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.7
Rsi
4.0
Ma Position
7.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.2
Gross Margin
0.6
Roa
1.2
Current Ratio
2.0
Moat
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 426% FCF/NI
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.17Resistance $13.37

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.15% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.38: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $11.51. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.37 (+8.0% upside). Prior stop was $11.51. Stop-loss: $11.51.

What are the risks of investing in AAL?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.15% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is AAL overvalued or undervalued?

American Airlines Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.7 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AAL?

30 analysts cover AAL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $15.

What does American Airlines Group, Inc. do?American Airlines Group operates a major network air carrier with hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los...

American Airlines Group operates a major network air carrier with hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington D.C., serving approximately 224 million passengers in 2025 with 139,100 employees. Revenue comes from passenger fares, cargo, and AAdvantage co-branded credit card partnerships that generated $6.2 billion in cash payments in 2025.

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