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American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Airlines

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.62: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

American Airlines Group operates a major network air carrier through hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, DFW, LAX, Miami, NYC, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington D.C., serving over 350 destinations. In 2025, approximately 224 million passengers boarded flights; ~139,100 employees with... Read more

$11.62+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 12 Airlines
Stop $10.82Target $13.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$14.86+27.9%24 analysts
$13.37our TP
$11.62price
$14.86mean
$10
$22

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.62: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.10% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.5
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA8.4
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV59%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Mary N. Dillon elected to AAG's Board of Directors on March 24, 2026. Appointed to Compensation Committee and Corporate Governance and Public Responsibility Committee. No reason cited for appointment other than Board expansion.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.5
Macd
3.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.2
Gross Margin
0.6
Roa
1.2
Current Ratio
2.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 426% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.35Resistance $13.41

Price Targets

$11
$13
A.Upside+15.1%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.10% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.62: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.82. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.37 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $10.82. Stop-loss: $10.82.

What are the risks of investing in AAL?

Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.10% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is AAL overvalued or undervalued?

American Airlines Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.5 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AAL?

30 analysts cover AAL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $15.

What does American Airlines Group, Inc. do?American Airlines Group operates a major network air carrier through hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, DFW, LAX, Miami, NYC,...

American Airlines Group operates a major network air carrier through hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, DFW, LAX, Miami, NYC, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Washington D.C., serving over 350 destinations. In 2025, approximately 224 million passengers boarded flights; ~139,100 employees with 86% represented by labor unions and $6.2 billion in co-branded credit card partner payments.

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