J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality→Stable
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration→Stable
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $112.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers and Café Bustelo coffee, Jif peanut butter, Smucker's fruit spreads, Uncrustables frozen sandwiches, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone pet products, and Hostess sweet baked goods — sold... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $112.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart accounted for 33% of J.M. Smucker's consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and the top 10 customers combined made up approximately 60% of net sales, concentrated mostly in the U.S. Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, and Pet Foods segments that together generated 86% of the year's revenue. Net sales outside the United States totaled just 4% of the consolidated figure, and the company employed over 8,000 full-time workers across nine unionized manufacturing locations.
Smucker earns revenue primarily through branded volume sold to food retailers, club stores, and mass merchandisers, competing against private label and branded rivals including The Kraft Heinz Company, Nestlé, and General Mills across its coffee, peanut butter, pet food, and frozen handheld categories. Key inputs — green coffee, peanuts, flour, sugar, and packaging materials — are managed through futures, basis, options, and fixed-price contracts, but certain products depend on single-source suppliers: Keurig supplies K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's supplies liquid coffee for the Away From Home business, and Graham Packaging supplies Folgers packaging. Roughly 22% of full-time employees, spread across nine manufacturing locations, are covered by collective bargaining agreements, with contracts covering about 10% of the workforce expiring in 2026.
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Smucker's manufacturing footprint carries a specific geographic vulnerability that neither its customer mix nor its supplier list captures: the 10-K discloses that substantially all coffee production — the company's largest product category — is concentrated in one facility in New Orleans, Louisiana, an area exposed to hurricane risk, with additional plants in tornado- and wildfire-prone Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, and California. Because Milk-Bone dog snacks and fruit spreads are also consolidated into single manufacturing sites, a weather event severe enough to idle one plant could halt an entire product line rather than merely reduce output, a risk the filing treats as separate from its raw-material price volatility disclosures.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS Alphabet, Unum Group, JM Smucker And More: CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Unum Group, J.M. Smucker Company, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, Alphabet — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $130 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stock Of The Day: Is This The Top For J. M. Smucker? — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $125 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart33%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in 2025.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHProductU.S. retail market segments86%10-K Item 1: 'These segments in total comprised 86 percent of consolidated net sales in 2025'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States96%10-K Item 1: 'the majority of our sales are in the United States (“U.S.”) ... Net sales outside the U.S., subject to foreign currency translation, represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales for 2025.'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods, which are used in its proprietary Keurig® K-Cup® brewing system.'
- HIGHSupplierJDE Peet's10-K Item 1A: 'JDE Peet’s N.V. (“JDE Peet’s”) is our single-source supplier for liquid coffee for our Away From Home business'
- HIGHSupplierGraham Packaging10-K Item 1A: 'Graham Packaging Company, L.P. (“Graham Packaging”) is our single-source supplier for the packaging of our Folgers coffee products.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $112.76: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $105.54. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $115.39 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $105.54. Stop-loss: $105.54.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Product: U.S. retail market segments (86.0%); Target reached (-1.4% upside).
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $122.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers and Café...
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers and Café Bustelo coffee, Jif peanut butter, Smucker's fruit spreads, Uncrustables frozen sandwiches, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone pet products, and Hostess sweet baked goods — sold primarily through retail outlets in the United States and Canada. Walmart accounted for 33% of the company's consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and its four reportable segments generated 86% of net sales.