J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality↓Deteriorating
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $125.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig single-source supplier for K-Cup pods.
J.M. Smucker makes branded food and beverage products including Folgers coffee, Jif peanut butter, Milk-Bone and Pup-Peroni pet snacks, sold primarily through North American retail outlets. Net sales outside the U.S. were 4 percent of consolidated net sales in 2025. Revenue... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $125.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig single-source supplier for K-Cup pods. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart accounted for 33% of The J.M. Smucker Company's net sales in fiscal 2025, and the company's top 10 customers together made up approximately 60% of consolidated net sales, concentrated almost entirely in the United States — net sales outside the U.S. were just 4% of the total. Smucker's four reportable segments carry brands including Folgers and Dunkin' coffee, Jif and Uncrustables, Meow Mix and Milk-Bone pet products, and Hostess sweet baked goods.
Smucker sells through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, and mass merchandisers, competing against both branded rivals — including The Kraft Heinz Company, Nestlé S.A., and General Mills — and private-label products, which held a 15.2% dollar average market share in the categories where Smucker competes, up from 13.7% a year earlier. Coffee, peanuts, flour, sugar, oils and fats, and fruit are the company's primary agricultural inputs, managed partly through futures, basis, options, and fixed-price contracts; green coffee is sourced solely from foreign countries and is subject to weather, geopolitical, and supply-and-demand volatility. Smucker licenses the Dunkin' trademark from DD IP Holder LLC through 2039 for packaged retail coffee products, paying royalties on those sales. The company also relies on single-source suppliers for several inputs, including Keurig for K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's for liquid coffee, and Graham Packaging for Folgers packaging.
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Beyond its customer concentration, Smucker carries a distinct single-site production risk: the 10-K discloses that substantially all of its coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana, an area subject to hurricanes and other weather-related events, with additional facilities in tornado- and wildfire-prone states including Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, and California. Layered on top of that geographic manufacturing concentration, the company depends on single-source suppliers for K-Cup pods, liquid coffee, and Folgers packaging, so a weather event in New Orleans and a single-source supplier disruption represent two independent points of failure for the same coffee business, rather than a single, diversifiable risk.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS Bernstein Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $160 — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Michael Burry Warns Anthropic’s Valuation Could Buy 78 Profitable S&P 500 Companies: ‘Fun Game in Times Like These’ — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 negative
- NEWS J.M. Smucker Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms Undisclosed — benzinga Sep 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $136 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bernstein Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $157 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-16T11:42:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig single-source supplier for K-Cup pods10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $125.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig single-source supplier for K-Cup pods. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $127.91 (+1.6%), stop $120.19 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $127.91 (+1.6% upside). Target $127.91 (+1.6%), stop $120.19 (−4.8%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $120.19.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig single-source supplier for K-Cup pods; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of 56.9 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
22 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $142.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?J.M. Smucker makes branded food and beverage products including Folgers coffee, Jif peanut butter, Milk-Bone and...
J.M. Smucker makes branded food and beverage products including Folgers coffee, Jif peanut butter, Milk-Bone and Pup-Peroni pet snacks, sold primarily through North American retail outlets. Net sales outside the U.S. were 4 percent of consolidated net sales in 2025. Revenue depends on a limited number of large retail customers.