The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SJM stock price target?

Take-profit $106.03 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $92.48.

Q: What are the risks of investing in SJM?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (33.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig; Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum.

Q: Is SJM overvalued or undervalued?

The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about SJM?

23 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $118.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

J.M. Smucker manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products in the US across four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess brands). Walmart represented 33% of net sales in 2025; Keurig is the sole supplier... Read more

$97.35+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 26 Packaged Foods

Stop $92.48Target $106.03(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1

Analyst target$117.81+21.0%16 analysts

$106.03our TP

$97.35price

$117.81mean

$145

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (33.0%)

Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)9.6

Mkt Cap$10.3B

EV/EBITDA9.5

Profit Mgn-14.1%

ROE-20.7%

Rev Growth7.0%

Beta0.26

Dividend4.55%

Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish

IV55%elevated

Max Pain$70-28.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomerWalmart Inc.33%
10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in 2025'
HIGHSupplierKeurig
10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods'
HIGHSupplierGraham Packaging
10-K Item 1A: 'Graham Packaging Company, L.P. ("Graham Packaging") is our single-source supplier for the packaging of our Folgers coffee products'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-03Item 5.02MEDIUM
J.M. Smucker entered Separation Agreement with John Brase (former President/COO), effective Feb 26, 2026, providing $1.185M lump sum plus pro-rata incentive. Role absorbed by CEO Mark Smucker; no disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
Board expanded to 11 members; Woo-Sung Chung and David Singer appointed as directors effective April 15, 2026, both joining the Audit Committee. No officer departures cited.
SEC filing →
2026-02-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
John Brase (President/COO) departed effective Feb 9, 2026; Mark Smucker absorbed President title. Tucker Marshall promoted to CFO | EVP. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.215%1.23

Quality3.615%0.54

Growth7.115%1.06

Momentum5.510%0.55

Sentiment7.110%0.71

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.410%0.24

Technical Setup3.45%0.17

Risk Profile6.75%0.34

Catalyst6.15%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)5.64

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.2

Value Rank

1.9

Growth Rank

7.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance

1.7

Bollinger

2.1

52w Position

6.3

Unprofitable operations — net margin -14.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Gross Margin

2.8

Roa

3.2

Current Ratio

3.4

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

6.7

Operating Margin

7.5

No competitive moat

GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

70 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $88.25Resistance $98.96

Price Targets

$92

$106

A.Upside+8.9%

A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-09 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SJM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $97.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $92.48. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SJM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.03 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $92.48. Stop-loss: $92.48.

What are the risks of investing in SJM?

Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart Inc. (33.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig; Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is SJM overvalued or undervalued?

The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SJM?

23 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $118.

What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?J.M. Smucker manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products in the US across four segments: U.S. Retail...