J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality→Stable
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $118.32: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers coffee, Jif peanut butter, Smucker's fruit spreads, Hostess sweet baked goods and Meow Mix and Milk-Bone pet foods — sold primarily through retail outlets in North America,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $118.32: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart Inc. and its subsidiaries accounted for 33 percent of The J.M. Smucker Company's net sales in both fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2024, and the top 10 customers together represented approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales. Four reportable segments — US Retail Coffee, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — made up 86 percent of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, with international sales, mostly in Canada, contributing just 4 percent.
Smucker's US Retail segments sell through a combination of direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchandisers, competing against The Kraft Heinz Company's Maxwell House in coffee and Hormel Foods' Skippy in peanut butter, alongside growing private-label share that reached a 15.2 average market share in the 52 weeks ended April 20, 2025. Green coffee is sourced entirely from foreign countries and exposed to weather, geopolitical, and currency volatility, while peanuts, flour, sugar, and fruit are sourced mainly from North America. Keurig is the single-source supplier of K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's is the single-source supplier of liquid coffee for the Away From Home business, and Graham Packaging is the single-source supplier of Folgers coffee packaging, concentrations the company manages through long-term contracts rather than diversified sourcing. Coffee, Milk-Bone dog snacks, and fruit spreads production is each consolidated into single manufacturing sites, magnifying the impact of any single-site disruption.
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Smucker treats its coffee-roasting methods and Uncrustables sandwich-making processes as trade secrets rather than patented technology, meaning a competitor that independently discovers similar methods could replicate flavor or product quality without infringing any patent, a gap the 10-K acknowledges directly. The company also depends on a licensed trademark it does not own: the Dunkin' brand, licensed from DD IP Holder LLC through January 1, 2039, covers packaged coffee products including K-Cup pods sold in grocery, mass-merchandiser, and club channels, and requires ongoing royalty payments and license compliance that, if breached or left unrenewed, could remove an entire branded product line from Smucker's coffee portfolio.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 26, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $125 — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS J.M. Smucker Board Increases Quarterly Dividend From $1.10 To $1.12 Per Share — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Alphabet, Unum Group, JM Smucker And More: CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Unum Group, J.M. Smucker Company, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, Alphabet — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $130 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-27T13:13:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart33%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024 and 34 percent of net sales in 2023.'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- LOWGeographicoutside the U.S.4.0%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales outside the U.S., subject to foreign currency translation, represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales for 2025.'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods, which are used in its proprietary Keurig® K-Cup® brewing system.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $118.32: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $112.04. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $116.05 (-5.7% upside). Prior stop was $112.04. Stop-loss: $112.04.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Keurig; Target reached (-5.7% upside).
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $124.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers coffee, Jif...
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — including Folgers coffee, Jif peanut butter, Smucker's fruit spreads, Hostess sweet baked goods and Meow Mix and Milk-Bone pet foods — sold primarily through retail outlets in North America, with non-U.S. sales representing just 4% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025. Four reportable segments accounted for 86% of consolidated net sales in 2025, and Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries alone represented 33% of net sales, with the top 10 customers together contributing approximately 60%.