The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $115.43: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.63; Below-average business quality.
J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Uncrustables, Jif), U.S. Retail Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess). Walmart... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $115.43: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.63; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart and its subsidiaries accounted for 33% of J.M. Smucker's net sales in fiscal 2025, the largest single-customer exposure among a top-10 retailer group that represented approximately 60% of consolidated net sales in the same period. International operations — principally Canada — contributed just 4% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, and the company employed over 8,000 full-time people worldwide. Four operating segments — U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — together comprised 86% of consolidated net sales.
Smucker earns revenue from branded packaged food sold through food retailers, club stores, mass merchandisers, dollar stores, and online channels. In U.S. Retail Coffee, the flagship Folgers brand competes against Maxwell House (The Kraft Heinz Company) and McCafé (Keurig Dr. Pepper), while Dunkin' K-Cup pods are produced under a license from DD IP Holder LLC running through January 1, 2039. In U.S. Retail Pet Foods, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, and Pup-Peroni compete against Nestlé Purina PetCare and Mars. Input costs include green coffee sourced solely from foreign countries and subject to high price volatility from weather, crop disease, and geopolitical disruption, plus peanuts, flour, sugar, and packaging. The company manages commodity volatility through futures, basis, options, and fixed-price contracts. Private label held a 15.2% dollar market share in Smucker's categories for the 52 weeks ended April 20, 2025, up from 13.7% in the prior year, reflecting intensifying competitive pressure at retail.
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Smucker faces three named single-source supplier dependencies that expose distinct supply disruption risks with limited short-term substitution options. Keurig is the sole supplier of K-Cup pods; JDE Peet's N.V. is the sole supplier of liquid coffee for Away From Home, with the 10-K noting a limited number of alternative manufacturers; and Graham Packaging Company is the sole supplier of Folgers coffee packaging — with the filing stating it could be difficult to find an alternative supplier for any of these if the named counterparty cannot perform. Additionally, substantially all coffee production is consolidated at one site in New Orleans, Louisiana, exposing the segment to hurricane and weather disruption.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS UBS Maintains Buy on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $130 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stock Of The Day: Is This The Top For J. M. Smucker? — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 negative
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $125 — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Oxford Industries Posts Mixed Q1 Results, Joins Oracle, Swarmer And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Thursday's Pre-Mark — benzinga Jun 11, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $120 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:27Z.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $115.43: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.63; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $108.26. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $115.39 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $108.26. Stop-loss: $108.26.
Target reached (-5.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $122.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café...
J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Uncrustables, Jif), U.S. Retail Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess). Walmart represents 33% of net sales; top 10 customers collectively represent ~60% of consolidated net sales.