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The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $103.04: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.81; Below-average business quality.

J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Uncrustables, Jif), U.S. Retail Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess). Walmart... Read more

$103.04+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#9 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.00%
IncomeYield4.25%(5y avg 3.36%)Payout86.06%at-risk
Stop $98.68Target $104.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$116.53+13.1%17 analysts
$104.88our TP
$103.04price
$116.53mean
$97
$134

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $103.04: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.81; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (1.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$11.1B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn-14.1%
ROE-20.7%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta0.24
Dividend4.25%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.81bearish
IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
1.9
Growth Rank
6.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
7.5

Unprofitable operations — net margin -14.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
2.8
Roa
3.2
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
7.5
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $93.36Resistance $104.75

Price Targets

$99
$105
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SJM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $103.04: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.81; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78. Prior stop was $98.68. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SJM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $104.88 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $98.68. Stop-loss: $98.68.

What are the risks of investing in SJM?

Target reached (1.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is SJM overvalued or undervalued?

The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SJM?

24 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $117.

What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café...

J.M. Smucker markets branded food and beverage products in four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads (Uncrustables, Jif), U.S. Retail Pet Foods (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess). Walmart represents 33% of net sales; top 10 customers collectively represent ~60% of consolidated net sales.

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