J.M. Smucker Company trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.06, but a quality score below the minimum threshold, heavy customer and supplier concentration, a confirmed death cross, and the stock already trading above its price target leave the current setup unattractive for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Value Multiple Below Threshold Quality↑Improving
- Heavy Customer And Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Death Cross Recovery Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. At $121.00, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%).
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), spreads (Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables), pet snacks (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Hostess baked goods — sold mostly in the U.S. Walmart accounted for 33%... Read more
Sell if holding. At $121.00, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The J.M. Smucker Company
About The J.M. Smucker Company
Walmart Inc. and its subsidiaries accounted for 33 percent of The J.M. Smucker Company's net sales in fiscal 2025, and the top 10 customers together made up approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales. Four reportable segments — U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks — generated 86 percent of consolidated net sales, with just 4 percent of net sales coming from outside the U.S.
Smucker's U.S. retail segments sell primarily through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, and mass merchandisers. Its Sweet Baked Snacks and International and Away From Home businesses add distribution through foodservice distributors, operators, and international retail channels. Raw materials — green coffee, peanuts, flour, sugar, oils and fats, and fruit — are commodities managed partly through futures, basis, options, and fixed-price contracts, but green coffee is sourced solely from foreign countries and is subject to weather, geopolitical, and currency swings. The company has elected primary or single-source supply arrangements for several inputs: Keurig supplies K-Cup pods, JDE Peet's supplies liquid coffee for the Away From Home business, and Graham Packaging supplies Folgers coffee packaging. Smucker's competes against The Kraft Heinz Company, Nestlé, General Mills, Post Holdings, and Hormel Foods across its coffee, spreads, and pet food categories, and against private label brands that held a 15.2 dollar average market share in the 52 weeks ended April 20, 2025, up from 13.7 a year earlier.
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A different vulnerability sits in Smucker's recipes, not its retail relationships: the company treats its coffee-roasting and Uncrustables sandwich-making methods as trade secrets rather than patented inventions, so a competitor that independently discovers similar methods could copy them without infringing any patent. The Dunkin' name itself is licensed, not owned — the licenses covering K-Cup pods and retail packaged coffee run through January 1, 2039 and require ongoing royalty payments to DD IP Holder LLC, so any failure to renew or renegotiate those terms would remove a segment-defining brand from the portfolio. That IP exposure compounds a manufacturing concentration the 10-K discloses separately: substantially all of Smucker's coffee production takes place at a single New Orleans, Louisiana site.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From The J.M. Smucker Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — The J.M. Smucker Company
Latest news
- NEWS J.M. Smucker Files Prospectus For Offering Mixed Shelf; Terms Undisclosed — benzinga Sep 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $136 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bernstein Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $157 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JM Smucker Analysts Raise Their Forecasts After Upbeat Q1 Results — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on JM Smucker, Raises Price Target to $150 — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-09-26T04:01:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers60%10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales.'
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart33%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries amounted to 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States96%10-K Item 1: 'the majority of our sales are in the United States ... Net sales outside the U.S., subject to foreign currency translation, represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales for 2025.'
- HIGHGeographicNew Orleans, Louisiana coffee production10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana and is subject to risks associated with hurricane and other weather-related events'
- HIGHSupplierKeurig10-K Item 1A: 'Keurig is our single-source supplier for K-Cup® pods, which are used in its proprietary Keurig® K-Cup® brewing system.'
- HIGHSupplierJDE Peet's10-K Item 1A: 'JDE Peet's N.V. (“JDE Peet's”) is our single-source supplier for liquid coffee for our Away From Home business'
- HIGHSupplierGraham Packaging10-K Item 1A: 'Graham Packaging Company, L.P. (“Graham Packaging”) is our single-source supplier for the packaging of our Folgers coffee products.'
- HIGHCommoditygreen coffee10-K Item 1: 'Green coffee, along with certain other raw materials, is sourced solely from foreign countries, and its supply and price is subject to high volatility'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $121.00, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $116.04. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $127.29 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $116.04. Stop-loss: $116.04.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (60.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.2%.
The J.M. Smucker Company trades at a P/E of 56.9 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SJM with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $141.
What does The J.M. Smucker Company do?The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café...
The J.M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products — coffee (Folgers, Dunkin', Café Bustelo), spreads (Jif, Smucker's, Uncrustables), pet snacks (Meow Mix, Milk-Bone), and Hostess baked goods — sold mostly in the U.S. Walmart accounted for 33% of net sales and the top 10 customers made up about 60% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, with operations outside the U.S. contributing just 4%.