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Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.50 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: hog feed ingredients (corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat).

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. through three segments: Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog Production, employing approximately 32,000 people in the U.S. Brands include Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous; it is a majority-owned... Read more

$26.50+2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#17 of 26 Packaged Foods
Stop $24.97Target $27.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$31.36+18.3%7 analysts
$27.28our TP
$26.50price
$31.36mean
$35

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.50 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: hog feed ingredients (corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 32%
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: hog feed ingredients (corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative news sentiment (-0.83)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.3
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$10.4B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta
Dividend4.73%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$13-52.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityhog feed ingredients (corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat)
    10-K Item 1A: 'hog raising costs are largely dependent on the fluctuations of commodity prices for corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat and other feed ingredients'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.5
Uptrend pullback (RSI 30) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
3.8
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.74Resistance $29.80

Price Targets

$25
$27
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $26.50 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: hog feed ingredients (corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $24.97. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.28 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $24.97. Stop-loss: $24.97.

What are the risks of investing in SFD?

Concentration risk — Commodity: hog feed ingredients (corn, grains, soybean meal, wheat); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative news sentiment (-0.83).

Is SFD overvalued or undervalued?

Smithfield Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFD?

11 analysts cover SFD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Smithfield Foods, Inc. do?Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. through three segments: Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork,...

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. through three segments: Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog Production, employing approximately 32,000 people in the U.S. Brands include Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous; it is a majority-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-based WH Group Limited.

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