Skip to main content

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. under brands including Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous, employing approximately 32,000 people with 38 processing plants in 18 states. Packaged Meats generated 56% of 2025 sales and 85% of operating... Read more

$26.07+4.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#12 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.15%
IncomeYield4.79%Payout41.34%sustainable
Stop $24.91Target $27.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$31.36+20.3%7 analysts
$27.28our TP
$26.07price
$31.36mean
$35

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Smithfield Foods, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta
Dividend4.79%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$13-52.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart15%
    10-K Item 1: 'Walmart Inc...accounted for approximately 15%, 16% and 15% of our consolidated sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers42%
    10-K Item 1: 'Cumulatively, our top ten customers accounted for 42%, 39% and 39% of our consolidated sales in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
3.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
5.6
Quality Rank
6.2
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.33Resistance $29.15

Price Targets

$25
$27
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $27.28 (+4.6%), stop $24.91 (−4.7%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.28 (+4.6% upside). Target $27.28 (+4.6%), stop $24.91 (−4.7%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $24.91.

What are the risks of investing in SFD?

Thin upside margin: 4.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Weak growth.

Is SFD overvalued or undervalued?

Smithfield Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SFD?

11 analysts cover SFD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Smithfield Foods, Inc. do?Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. under brands including Smithfield, Eckrich, and...

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork in the U.S. under brands including Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous, employing approximately 32,000 people with 38 processing plants in 18 states. Packaged Meats generated 56% of 2025 sales and 85% of operating profit; WH Group (Hong Kong) controls approximately 87% of shares outstanding.

Related stocks: CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · MKC (McCormick & Company, Incorporat) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · BRBR (BellRing Brands, Inc.)