Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single co-manufacturer per product or brand.
Flowers Foods is the second-largest U.S. packaged bakery producer, selling breads, buns, rolls, snacks, and baking mixes under Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Tastykake, and Simple Mills brands. Revenue flows through a direct-store-delivery model via independent... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single co-manufacturer per product or brand. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle co-manufacturer per product or brand10-K Item 1A: 'In some cases, a co-manufacturer may produce all of our requirements for a particular product or brand.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-30Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Growth Officer Terry S. Thomas agreed to depart Flowers Foods effective April 24, 2026; his role will be dissolved. Severance includes 18 months base salary and 12 months COBRA. No successor named.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-23Item 5.02LOWDirector George E. Deese (61 years of service) and Edward J. Casey Jr. will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited. Board size reducing from 11 to 9 directors.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $8.97 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: single co-manufacturer per product or brand. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84. Prior stop was $8.47. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $8.97 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $8.47. Stop-loss: $8.47.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single co-manufacturer per product or brand; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Flowers Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover FLO with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $10.
What does Flowers Foods, Inc. do?Flowers Foods is the second-largest U.S. packaged bakery producer, selling breads, buns, rolls, snacks, and baking...
Flowers Foods is the second-largest U.S. packaged bakery producer, selling breads, buns, rolls, snacks, and baking mixes under Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Tastykake, and Simple Mills brands. Revenue flows through a direct-store-delivery model via independent distributors and direct sales to retail and foodservice customers.